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Burkina Faso + 4 more

ACLED Regional Overview Africa: April 2024

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Burkina Faso: Surge in political violence in the Center-East

Ongoing offensives by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and counter-offensives by security forces and Volunteers for Defense of Homeland (VDP) in the Center-East region more than doubled in April compared to the previous month, with battles involving JNIM in the Center-East region the highest recorded so far in 2024. Most of the violence centered in the Koulpelogo province, where JNIM attacked a police unit in Yourkoudghin village, resulting in 35 reported fatalities. Burkinabe forces responded with airstrikes against JNIM bases in the Tiourel forest, reportedly killing several militants. The violence in Koulpelogo province is relatively recent but quickly took on extreme proportions after it became a focal point of conflict due to its strategic importance in the region. It provides access to resources through artisanal mining and is an important transit route for militants. The province is home to seasonal movements of goods and livestock and is covered by dense forests, including Tiourel, Kabonga, Bittou, Kankamogre, and Ouarweogo, which provide bases for the militants’ operations, logistics, and cross-border mobility.

Democratic Republic of the Congo: Fatal Civilian Targeting by the ADF

While much of the international attention in the Democratic Republic of the Congo remains focused on the M23’s ongoing push toward Goma, civilian targeting last month by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) was the deadliest since August 2023. In April, civilian targeting events by the ADF rose by 60% from the previous month, with numerous attacks in Beni, Irumu, and Mambasa territories. Violence was especially acute around Mangina commune, Beni, where ADF reportedly killed at least 28 civilians and burned down health facilities. The rise in civilian targeting follows the deaths of two ADF leaders earlier in April, known as ‘Dr. Musa’ and ‘Baghdad,’ during joint Congolese and Ugandan military operations in early April.3 Collaborative military operations between DRC and Uganda have pushed the ADF out of several strongholds and forced operations into smaller, mobile groups.4 Yet, the ADF remains the most violent and deadly armed group toward civilians in the DRC so far in 2024 — the reported civilian fatalities from just ADF violence constitute more than all civilian fatalities from violence perpetrated by other armed groups in DRC combined between January and April.

Battles escalated in the disputed Southern Tigray zone last month following initial clashes earlier this year, with renewed contestation between Tigray and Amhara militias for the first time since October 2022. ACLED records 20 battles in April in Southern Tigray throughout Alamata, Mekhoni, Ofla, Raya Alamata, and Zata woredas. Most clashes occurred between 13 and 15 April, when the Ethiopian army took control of Alamata town. The government accused the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) of violating the 2022 Pretoria Agreement and invading the zones, a statement that was denied by the Interim Regional Administration of Tigray.5 The violence in the Southern Tigray zone reportedly displaced more than 50,000 people, further complicating the already fragile status of the 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement.6 Among the agreement clauses is federal assistance for returning displaced people to their villages, a necessary step before the local population can vote in a referendum to decide on the status of the disputed territories.7 In April, people displaced from their home villages to Southern Tigray demonstrated to demand the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement, following similar protests in January.

*For more details on the Tigray conflict and weekly updates on Ethiopia, see *ACLED’s Ethiopia Peace Observatory page and its newly published Year in Review, commemorating three years of the project.

Ahead of elections on 29 May, South Africa continued to see heightened levels of demonstrations in April, mainly over socioeconomic struggles and the population’s growing discontent with the current government. ACLED records more than 175 demonstrations in April. Nearly 30% of all demonstrations took place in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province, which remains a key battleground for the upcoming elections (*for more, see ACLED’s *March Regional Overview). KZN province remains a historical stronghold for former President Jacob Zuma. On 9 April, South Africa’s Electoral Court dismissed an appeal barring Zuma from participating in the upcoming elections, allowing the former president to enter the list of candidates. The decision represented another victory for the politician and his newly created political party, uMkhonto weSizwe (MK).8 Zuma’s return to the political arena in late 2023 followed his rising criticism of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party,9 which was formerly led by Zuma. Several reports signal decreasing support for the ANC,10 a party that has been in power for three decades since the end of apartheid. The loss of an absolute majority may force the political party, for the first time, to form coalitions to maintain power, creating space for political compromise and potential policy changes.11

Political violence in North Darfur spiked in April as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) prepare to attack the state capital, El Fasher. With the RSF and allied Arab militias surrounding El Fasher, violent incidents were reported almost daily in the capital, which remains the only major city in Darfur not under the control of the RSF. The Sudanese Armed Forces and its allies defended their last regional stronghold through air and ground operations against the RSF from within and around El Fasher. The deteriorating security situation in the region has gathered significant international attention to the potential of worsening humanitarian crises and ethnic cleansing.12 In April, ACLED records at least 19 events where the RSF and allied Arab militias attacked ethnic Zaghawa civilians in Darfur. The current situation in North Darfur raises concerns over a possible escalation of ethnic violence, drawing parallels with the RSF targeting of ethnic Masalit in West Darfur, which rights groups believe constitutes ethnic cleansing and war crimes.13

For more details on the conflict in Sudan, see ACLED’s One Year of War in Sudan Situation Report.