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Predicting the unpredictable: Preparing for potential future scenarios

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How a project combines data modeling with collaboration across UN agencies to anticipate Venezuelan refugee movement into Brazil.

By Amy Lynn Smith — Independent Writer + Strategist

Venezuelans have set up camp just outside the border with Brazil, waiting for it to reopen. That’s how eager they are to cross into the country as so many others already have — or at least they did, until the Brazilian government closed the border in March 2020 in the early days of COVID-19 to help prevent the spread of the disease. There’s no telling how many others are just waiting for the chance to leave Venezuela for Brazil, to escape both political and economic turmoil in search of a better life.

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