FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
-
Early prospects remain favourable for the 2012 maize crop despite dry weather
-
2011 wheat output lower than the 2010 good harvest
-
Maize exports in 2011/12 (April/March) forecast at a high level of 10 million tonnes
-
Maize and wheat flour prices showed declines in February
Despite dry weather early forecasts for the 2012 maize crop point to a new record harvest
Sowing of the 2012 main season maize crop in the key growing areas of the south (Parana, Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso), as well as in the Centre-West region, was completed in December. The area planted is estimated some 9 percent larger than the previous season, in response to higher prices. Rains were mostly favourable during the start of the season (August-October), benefiting planting and early crop development. However, since November, in the main growing southern region, especially the Rio Grande do Sul state; have experienced a prolonged dry spell that negatively impacted yields, forecasts to decline by about 11 percent comparing to last year.
Planting of the 2012 second season maize crop, mainly grown in the Centre-West Region and in the southern state of Paraná, started in mid-January. In an effort to compensate for the expected decrease in production in the South-Region, the area planted for the second season is estimated to expand significantly, particularly in the state of Mato Grosso (+ 29 percent). Assuming normal weather conditions during the growing season, a good harvest is anticipated. In aggregate, the 2012 maize production (main and second seasons) is preliminary forecast at about 60 million tonnes, an increase of 7 percent from the record level of 2011.
Harvesting of the 2012 irrigated rice in the main producing area of Rio Grande do Sul has just started, while planting is underway in northern parts. Preliminary forecast point to a significant decline in this year’s production. This is the result of an expected 9 percent reduction of the sowed area, due to higher production costs and insufficient irrigation water supplies, coupled with lower yields.
Dry weather in the main growing areas of the South-Region negatively affected 2012 soybeans crops, and production is forecast 8 percent below last year.