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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Maize output in 2026 anticipated to remain above average, although below 2025 record-high level
- Wheat plantings in 2026 anticipated to decline for fourth consecutive year
- Exports of paddy and maize above average in 2025/26 due to large domestic surplus
- Prices of yellow maize, wheat and rice lower year‑on‑year in January 2026
Maize output in 2026 anticipated to remain above average, although below 2025 record‑high level
The harvest of the 2026 first minor maize season crop started last February in the main producing southern regions. The area sown is officially estimated to be higher than the previous two years, as farmers preferred to plant maize more than the less profitable crops of rice and beans. However, the area remains slightly below the five-year average. Erratic precipitation delayed planting operations in the last quarter of 2025 in some central and northern states, but generally favourable rainfall amounts since last January restored beneficial conditions for crop development across the country, boosting yields. As a result, the seasonal output is anticipated at an above-average level.
Sowing operations of the 2026 main maize season crop, which accounts for about 80 percent of the annual production, are underway and expected to conclude in March. Although the ample maize supply from the 2025 record-high production kept prices lower than the previous year, the strong export demand encouraged farmers to increase plantings above the previous year’s level. Despite a delay in planting operations in some northern and central regions, the area sown is preliminarily estimated at about 9 percent above the five-year average. Yield prospects are generally favourable as weather forecasts point to a high likelihood of average rainfall amounts between April and May 2026. Dry weather conditions are expected in March in some central states, likely affecting crops at early development stages in localized areas. Overall, seasonal output is anticipated to be above average, but below the record level achieved in 2025.
Planting of the 2026 paddy crop is nearing completion. According to official sources, the area planted is estimated to be slightly below the average and about 12 percent less than the high acreage of 2025. Erratic precipitation and low prices at planting time negatively affected the extent of planted area. Crop conditions in the main producing southern regions are reported to be favourable and yields are expected to remain near the average.