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CRISIS OVERVIEW
In 2023–2024, the Brazilian Amazon faced severe drought conditions driven by the combination of climate change-induced temperature anomalies, deforestation, and the effects of the 2023–2024 El Niño climate pattern, which brought below-average precipitation and aboveaverage temperatures to the region (WWA 24/01/2024; NPR 30/10/2024). This 18-month drought is considered the most intense since national drought monitoring began around 1954, with immediate and long-term impacts on both communities and the environment (PBS 10/09/2024).
The outlook for 2025 remains uncertain. By 23 January, most of the Amazon states were experiencing a below-average rainy season. Precipitation forecasts anticipate that the rainy season may not be enough to induce a full recovery from the drought or prevent the risk of widespread wildfires in 2025, especially across several parts of the Brazilian Amazon. The start of the rainy season in late 2024 was delayed and weaker than usual, and, according to Brazil’s National Centre for Monitoring and Warning Natural Disasters, the Amazonian rivers have yet to return to their normal levels (Mongabay 08/01/2025; WMO accessed 20/01/2025).
In 2023–2024, drought affected 59% of Brazil, causing water shortages and a severe loss of livelihoods and crops (PBS 10/09/2024; Barrons 10/09/2024). The areas worst affected include the states of Acre, Amazonas, Mato Grosso, Rondonia, and Tocantins, which form part of the Amazon region in the northwestern and central-western parts of the country (Brasil de Fato 04/11/2024; UNICEF 18/11/2024; USAID 31/10/2024; Climainfo 26/09/2024). At least 42 indigenous territories – accounting for 53% of Brazil’s indigenous areas – were affected. Data from the Integrated Disaster Information System shows that 2,850 indigenous families were affected, many becoming isolated, as rivers dried up and cut access to healthcare, nutrition, water, protection, and education (NexoJornal 07/11/2024; USAID 31/10/2024; Climainfo 26/09/2024; UNICEF 18/11/2024).
The Brazilian part of the Amazon basin encompasses 251 cities (including five state capitals), 3,671 non-indigenous localities, 161 villages, and around 2,521 indigenous villages (Santos de Lima et al. 12/07/2024). It has been estimated that millions of people have been affected in at least 130 municipalities across the country (Globo 19/12/2024). By November 2024, the drought had affected at least 745,000 people in Amazonas and Acre states alone, including 269,000 children. Of those affected, approximately 330,000 individuals residing in riverside communities and in over 2,200 indigenous villages faced the worst effects (UNICEF 18/11/2024).
The situation was worsened by wildfires, which occur annually as a result of cattle and agriculture practices. The drought has sharply increased wildfires since mid-2024, with over 27 million acres burnt by early October – a 120% rise from the same period in 2023. These wildfires affected over 680 municipalities (out of the total 5,571), around 18.9 million people, including many already affected by the drought in the Amazon region (Climate Central 30/12/2024; USAID 31/10/2024).
Living conditions and access to basic needs and services in drought-affected communities are further aggravated by the presence of armed groups that indiscriminately exploit natural resources, recruit communities for illegal activities, or force displacement (InfoAmazonia 03/08/2023; Insight Crime 08/11/2022). The combination of drought and insecurity has hampered access to the states in northwest Brazil, particularly Amazonas states. The reduced access to rivers and isolation heightens vulnerability to economic, social, and physical exploitation, including human trafficking, forced labour, and abuse. Women are particularly affected, as they often bear the financial and emotional burden when drought reduces crop yields or livestock (Insight Crime 19/11/2024).