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CRISIS IMPACT OVERVIEW
Because of a meteorological phenomenon known as the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), the Brazilian states of Bahia and Minas Gerais have been experiencing heavy rainfall since early December. The rains have caused flooding in 164 municipalities in Bahia and 341 in Minas Gerais (UNICEF 07/01/2022; BBC 12/01/2022; CNN 08/01/2022).
As at 25 January in Bahia, 27 people had died, and 523 were injured as a result of floods and landslides. At least 92,400 people were displaced (IFRC 24/01/2022). As at 30 January in Minas Gerais, 25 people had died, and around 57,000 were displaced (Hoje Em Dia 30/01/2022).
At least 410 municipalities in Minas Gerais and 155 municipalities in Bahia declared a state of emergency because of the floods (IFRC 24/01/2022; Hoje Em Dia 30/01/2022). As at 25 January, the floods and landslides had affected more than 965,000 people in both states, with over 101,000 in need of humanitarian assistance (IFRC 24/01/2022; ECHO 17/01/2022; UNICEF 07/01/2022).
The SACZ is characterised by a persistent cloud band that becomes stationary and generates heavy rainfall every October–April (Escobar and Reboita 18/12/2021). The resulting rains in 2021 began in November. Such heavy rainfall increased the levels of several rivers, which led to the bursting of two dams between 25–26 December near the municipalities of Vitoria da Conquista and Jussiape in Bahia (Firstpost 28/12/2021; IFRC 29/12/2021). On 8 January, another dam in Nova Lima in Minas Gerais state overflowed (BBC 12/01/2022).
Between December 2021 and January 2022, the SACZ had a greater impact because of (1) heavier rainfall than forecasted by the Brazilian Meteorological Institute, (2) the La Niña phenomenon, characterised in Brazil by intense and abundant rainfall and increased river flow (Boligon Minuzzi et al. 12/2007), and (3) the passage of a subtropical cyclone on 7 December, which flooded several municipalities in Bahia (BBC 29/12/2021 and 12/01/2022; INMET accessed 21/01/2022). In Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais state, the accumulated rainfall between 1–10 January 2022 totalled 411mm, when the average for the whole month was 329mm (INMET 10/01/2022; BBC 12/01/2022). For Salvador, the capital of Bahia, the Brazilian Meteorological Institute forecasted a cumulative rainfall of 300mm for January, when the historical average was 65mm (Canal Rural 07/01/2022; Climatempo accessed 25/01/2022). During the first ten days of January, Bahia had an accumulated rainfall of 100mm (INMET 10/01/2022).
ANTICIPATED SCOPE AND SCALE
There are 31 dams in Minas Gerais and ten in Bahia that are in a state of emergency given the risk of collapse (Diário Do Comércio 25/01/2022; Insurance Journal 12/01/2022; O Globo 27/12/2022). In Minas Gerais, two dams have collapsed in the last six years. One of these dams collapsed in 2019 and left 270 dead in the municipality of Brumadinho (Bloomberg 11/01/2022; ECHO 13/01/2022). Dams in Brazil suffered more incidents in 2020 (44) than in 2011–2019 combined (39). Dams are probably increasingly failing because they are often not designed for the significant increase in rainfall Brazil has been experiencing recently (RSB 2021). Most of these dams are located near highly populated centres, so if they overflow or collapse, the number of displaced people, deaths, and injuries in nearby populations will dramatically increase (BNamericas 12/01/2022).
January–April are the rainiest months of the year for Minas Gerais and Bahia (Datos Mundial accessed 13/01/2022 a; Datos Mundial accessed 13/01/2022 b). The average daily rainfall is 2.7mm between May–December and 5.4mm between January–April (Datos Mundial accessed 13/01/2022 a). As at 27 January, the Cachoeira, das Velhas, Doce, Gabo Bravo, Jucuruçu, Paraopeba, and São Francisco Rivers remained at risk of flooding (Brasil de Fato 25/01/2022; O Globo 27/12/2021;
Estado de Minas 12/01/2022; Metro1 10/01/2022). If the rains are sustained throughout the first months of 2022, the banks of several rivers in Bahia and Minas Gerais will likely break, increasing the number of displaced people