Attachments
Key findings:
Based on 4Mi surveys conducted with 888 refugees and migrants in Sarajevo between November 2025 and February 2026. In addition, 13 key informant interviews were carried out and two focus group discussions (one with researchers and members of civil society, and another one with refugee and migrant women).
- 51% of respondents left their country of departure and arrived in the first country on their journey in a regular manner.
- People are leaving countries of crisis or conflict (e.g. Afghanistan, Sudan, Syria) for economic as well as safety-related reasons: over half of them left for more than one reason, and economic factors are the most frequent reasons for leaving.
- Destinations tend to vary by nationality. Moroccans frequently take this route with the intention of reaching Spain; Afghans are heading to a range of countries; the UK is rarely cited as a destination.
- The ‘Bulgarian Route’ (from Türkiye, to Bulgaria, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina) appears to be the most dangerous means of crossing the Western Balkans.
- Bulgaria is considered the most dangerous country of all the countries transited by the respondents who had reached Sarajevo, followed by Türkiye and Serbia.
- The ‘police game’: Qualitative data highlighted cooperation between smugglers and Bulgarian police at the Bulgaria-Türkiye border, sometimes facilitating cross-border transit, and sometimes preventing it.
- Smuggling is considered necessary on this route, although costs and dynamics vary, and abuse by smugglers appear common. People travelling overland via Türkiye appear to be more dependent on smugglers for more of the journey, while those who travelled by sea from North Africa seem to only use a smuggler for the Mediterranean crossing.