Latin America & The Caribbean Weekly Situation Update as of 13 September 2024

KEY FIGURES

3.8M hectares burned by wildfires in Bolivia, up from 2.9 million last week

55% chance of La Niña conditions developing between September and November 2024

2.7K indigenous people affected by clashes in Cauca, Colombia

REGIONAL: LA NIÑA MONITORING

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts a 55 per cent chance of La Niña conditions developing between September and November 2024, increasing to 60 per cent from October 2024 to February 2025. La Niña is expected to bring cooler ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, affecting weather patterns globally. In Latin America and the Caribbean, this could lead to above-average rainfall in northern South America, Central America, and the Caribbean, heightening the risk of floods, landslides, and waterborne diseases. Conversely, central and southern South America may face below-average rainfall, jeopardizing crops and food security. Despite these variations, human-induced climate change is expected to drive persistent extreme weather, with widespread heat and above-normal sea-surface temperatures across most ocean basins. For more detailed information on the potential impacts in the region, please refer to the OCHA’s La Niña Humanitarian Snapshot.

COLOMBIA: ARMED VIOLENCE

Recent armed violence in Cauca has heightened the risk of displacement and confinement. In Totoró, ongoing clashes and territorial control by a Non-State Armed Group (NSAG) have led to mobility restrictions, affecting around 2,700 Indigenous Totoroez people and farmers. On 10 September, a boat carrying explosives was used in an attack near a naval base in Timbiquí, damaging over 100 civilian homes and restricting mobility for 2,400 Afro-descendant and Indigenous people. In La Vega, 1,200 people from the Indigenous reserve of Pancitara were exposed to crossfire between a NSAG and the army. Additionally, Indigenous leaders have reported threats from NSAGs, leading to individual displacements. The recent violence underscores the fragmentation of NSAGs and protection risks for civilians, including exposure to crossfire, unexploded devices and indiscriminate attacks.

SOUTH AMERICA: WILDFIRES UPDATE

The wildfire crisis across South America persists with emergencies declared in Bolivia and Brazil.

Bolivia: Wildfires have now devastated more than 3.8 million hectares of forests and grasslands across the country, up from 2.9 million last week. The government declared a national health emergency on 7 September to enhance coordination between local authorities and international efforts. The Humanitarian Country Network has been activated and UN agencies are supporting the response.

Brazil: Brazil has declared a state of emergency as wildfires surge, driven by worsening drought conditions and human activity. The Amazon recorded 38,000 fires in August, a 120 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2023. Media reports indicate a further 10 deaths, bringing the total to 76. Despite expanding firefighting efforts, experts warn the drought, Brazil’s worst in 44 years, may prolong the fire season.

Ecuador: As of 11 September, Ecuador is battling 22 active and two controlled forest fires, primarily in the Sierra region. The fires have so far affected 285 people. Since January 2024, 2,621 forest fires across 21 provinces have damaged 30,000 hectares of vegetation. The coming days are expected to bring high daytime temperatures, UV radiation and wind gusts to the Amazon, Inter-Andean region and central-southern coastal area.

Peru: On 12 September, the National Centre of Emergency Operations (COEN) reported six deaths due to widespread forest fires in Amazonas, Áncash and Cusco. The fires have destroyed 1,370 hectares of crops and damaged 1,100 hectares. Some 59 people have been injured and a further 1,634 displaced. Despite the severity, national authorities have been successful in managing the situation, even extending support to operations in Ecuador and Bolivia.