Attachments
SITUATION ANALYSIS
Description of the situation
The migration situation related to Belarus and neighbouring countries started in May 2021 with an increasing number of migrants irregularly entering Lithuania from Belarus. Later, in August 2021, there was an increase of migrants in Latvia and Poland. Since then, the situation has impacted an estimated 20,000 people spread across several countries, mainly Belarus, Poland, and Lithuania. Following regular and daily attempts by people to cross the borders into the EU during the autumn and an escalation on the border which led to clashes in early November, the situation de-escalated in December 2021 and early January 2022.
As a result of the Ukraine and Impacted Countries Crisis that started on 24 February 2022, the countries neighboring Ukraine were also affected by the crisis and faced influxes of displaced persons. Countries neighboring Ukraine, especially Poland, have received the highest number of refugees and are now heavily involved in providing humanitarian assistance to them. As a result of this situation and the de-escalation, the Belarus and Neighboring Countries Europe Region Population Movement Emergency Appeal (EA), was impacted by the Ukraine-related humanitarian crisis. However, in some instances the complementarity between this EA and the Ukraine crisis was able to be leveraged.
Although the National Societies operating within the scope of this EA were also responding to the Ukraine crisis, the activities within the scope of this EA were continued. In Belarus, distribution of humanitarian aid, health services, coordination with local authorities and RFL services continued. Provision of health services and humanitarian aid materials also continued in Poland as well and Restoring Family Links (RFL) services in Lithuania continued without any interruption.
After the de-escalation, some migrants remained in the terrain by the border, but the majority on the Belarus side of the border were moved to and housed in a logistics centre at Bruzgi border crossing. The number of people accommodated in the logistics centre decreased from around 1,850 people in November to 800 in January and 450 in early March. In March 2022 all migrants had left the logistics centre, either as a result of the IOM voluntary return programme or in another attempt to cross the border to the EU. The exact number of migrants across Belarus (excluding the logistics centre) is unknown, however, estimated in the low hundreds by the Belarus Red Cross, UNHCR and IOM. People are accommodated in centres in both Lithuania and Poland. In Lithuania, 1,551 people are held in five centres, pending asylum application processes, with the number of cumulative arrivals amounting to 4,465 according to the Lithuanian Ministry of Interior. Since August 2021, according to reports, 8,200 persons have been pushed-back from the Lithuanian borders. In Poland, people are held in detention centres managed by the Polish Border Guard. Some of the migrants who have arrived from Belarus during the past year were also placed in open centres run by the Office for Foreigners. Reports indicate that attempts to cross the border between Belarus and Poland are continuing, but at a significantly decreased rate. Humanitarian needs, human rights violations and operational constraints continue to be in the focus of concern. Following the increased number of attempts of border crossings and political tension at the EU’s Eastern borders starting since the summer 2021 and in response to EU MS calls for stricter border control measures, the EC has published a number of legislative changes. These include: proposed emergency measures in the areas of asylum and return for Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, the revision of the EU Schengen Border Code as well as a proposed Regulation addressing the situation of instrumentalization in migration and asylum. All three proposals, together with the ones already included in the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, risk further undermining migrants’ fundamental rights at EU borders, notably the right to asylum and the principle of nonrefoulement. In practice, these proposals might further exacerbate the already serious humanitarian consequences on migrants and can lead to vulnerable groups at risk of not receiving critical assistance and protection measures.
In Belarus, the situation has eased, with no influx of significant number of migrants observed. The number of migrants staying in Belarus has also reduced significantly due to repatriation flights, through which 3,817 Iraqi migrants have been repatriated from Belarus and 112 from Lithuania, as well as the IOM Assisted Voluntary Repatriation and Reintegration Programme, which assisted around 400 migrants to return from Belarus to their countries of origin in the last year. Although there are reported attempts to cross the border into the EU through Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, they have become limited in number and scale due to harsh winter conditions, and, in general, the strengthened border protection measures. However, the situation is being monitored and has the potential to escalate again.
In Lithuania, the State Border Guard Service reports showed a significant decrease in irregular border crossings during the last six months of 2022. According to the official statistics of the Migration Department under the Ministry of the Interior of the Republic of Lithuania, 135 people, who irregularly entered Lithuania from Belarus, had their asylum applications approved, and 80 people received Temporary Residence Permit cards. On the other hand, 2,703 asylum claims were rejected, while 596 procedures were suspended. According to the Ministry of Social Security and Labour, 1,134 migrants have returned from Lithuania to their countries of origin, 1,048 of whom did so voluntarily. As of Q1 2023, there were over 1,500 people living in five reception centres pending asylum application processes, with the number of cumulative arrivals amounting to 4,465, according to the Lithuanian Ministry of Interior. Since August 2021, according to reports, 19,938 persons have been pushed back from the Lithuanian borders.
By the end of 2021, the Lithuanian government introduced new legislation that allowed to detain migrants in irregular situations for up to 18 months, with a decision taken every six months. However, in May 2022, Lithuania’s Ministry of Interior announced that the restriction would not be extended for another six months, and migrants would be asked to leave the country. In late May 2022, the administration of reception centres issued permissions allowing migrants to leave reception centres temporarily. 4 out of 5 migrants who have received permission to leave reception centres temporarily were reported to have never returned to the facility, with their whereabouts unknown.
On 30 June 2022, the Lithuanian Government introduced changes to the Law on The Legal Status of Aliens. The amendment allowed migrants who arrived in Lithuania by crossing the Lithuanian border from Belarus to seek employment, under the condition that their arrival to Lithuania was registered within the Migration department system for 12 months. Although many people arrived in Lithuania in the summer of 2021, they were registered within the system later than their arrival (an average of more than six months after). This meant several people were forced to wait approximately until September 2022 to access the labour market and obtain coverage of a legal status that would allow them to reach essential services. In 2022, more than 400 Belarusians applied for asylum in Lithuania. Russian nationals were second (148), and Iraqi nationals were third (138). Citizens of other countries are in the same situation, but Belarusians stand out due to being the largest group of asylum seekers in Lithuania.
The two main groups of people in need targeted by the Lithuanian Red Cross response included asylum seekers (being integrated) and asylum seekers (waiting for a decision from the Migration Department) due to their vulnerable status while they waited for their visas. Asylum seekers were the most susceptible migrant crossing the border, especially Belorusians. In 2022, 206 Belarusians received refugee status, and only 18 were refused. Still, while waiting for a decision, they receive nothing from the state and have to take care of themselves, having neither savings, the right to work, nor health insurance (only necessary assistance is provided). Most Belarusians do not live in centres for asylum seekers but independently - with relatives, friends, and acquaintances, in housing provided by the diaspora and local NGOs. Since they do not live in centres, they do not receive any state support - neither a place to live food, nor even minimal social coverage. They only have the right to work if they receive a decision from the Migration Department within six months, which is also not accessible without a residence permit.
In Poland, the reports by the Polish Border Guard showed a significant decrease of the daily attempts (from 500 to 35) to cross the Polish border between mid-December 2021 and mid-January 2021 from the side of Belarus, due to harsh weather conditions, such as low temperature, strong winds, and high precipitation. Some people were pushed back to Belarus, while some who asked for asylum in Poland, especially families or ill persons, were transferred to detention centres. As of the last officially communicated figure (in February 2022), there were 1,6752 persons in the detention centres, and the current number of people held in detention centres is unknown. During Q2 2022, The Polish Red Cross (PRC) has gained access to one detention centre in Podlasie region, and has been allowed only to deliver goods. As of the end of the reporting period, on average there are approx. 100 daily attempts to cross the Belarussian – Polish border.