- Introduction
1.1. Background
Bangladesh is highly susceptible to the impacts of natural disasters and climate change. The country's population is frequently affected by various natural calamities such as floods, cyclones, droughts, salinity intrusion, cold waves, riverbank erosion, and thunderstorms. Particularly, communities residing in flood and cyclone-prone regions face recurrent hazards almost every year, leading to lasting consequences. To mitigate the loss and damage to community assets, pre-disaster emergency measures must be undertaken by com- munities, with support from the government and other stakeholders.
The Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR) in Bangladesh Is responsible for driving national risk reduction programs to address disaster management challenges. The government passed the Disaster Management Act in 2012, providing the legal framework for the ministry's operations. Since 2010, the government has been developing National Plans for Disaster Management (NPDM) and revised its Standing Orders on Disaster (SOD) in 2019, all aimed at strengthening disaster risk reduction efforts. Presently, the government maintains several funds to enhance the resilience of vulnerable communities and provide relief after disasters strike. Additionally, the government engages in anticipatory response activities, such as evacuation and providing shelter and food support,
In preparation for predictable disasters like cyclones and floods.
In Bangladesh, Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and humanitarian actions mainly concentrate on ongoing disaster prevention and post-disaster response, respectively. However, there Is an increasing interest among DRM and humanitarian professionals to explore the potential for taking action between the release of a fore- cast and the occurrence of an expected disaster event. In this context, “Scaling up Flood Forecast-based Action and Learning in Bangladesh” (SUFAL II) Consortium with “Strengthen Community Resilience through Flood Forecast based Early Action in Jamalpur” project commissioned a study to identify and assess various funding and financing mechanisms for Forecast-based Action (FbA) within the government scopes and to propose recommendations on how it can be strengthened and integrated with It.
Numerous studies worldwide, including SUFAL project reports like "Evaluation of SUFAL Project in the 2020 Monsoon Flood" and "Forecast-based Financing in Bangladesh: Scopes and Challenges," have acknowledged the benefits of local-level early risk assessment. In such circumstances, Forecast-based Early Action (FbA) allows communities to take preemptive measures in anticipation of hazards or disasters. This innovative approach relies on locally applicable and reliable forecasts, predefined triggers or thresholds for action, clear protocols with defined roles and responsibilities, and a pre-identified set of early actions linked to financing mechanisms. Although gaining momentum, the FbA agenda requires substantial evidence of its benefits in terms of institutional and community risk reduction, resilience, and disaster impact reduction. To this end, the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) has developed several acts, policies, and procedures for the management of natural disasters, including the Disaster Management (DM) Act, Standing Orders on Disaster (SOD), and Disaster Management (DM) Policy. The SOD includes a section (3.1.16) on Forecast-based Financing (FbF) and Forecast-based Early Action (FbA) in its latest revision in 2019. Additionally, in April 2021, the GoB accepted and enacted the Disaster Management Fund Rules 2021, outlining the fund's utilization before, dur-Ing, and immediately after disasters for specific and general initiatives. However, the fund is yet to be fully operationalized with local-level project interventions.