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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Issue of 'climate change induced forced migration' has received Immense importance In recent discourses. It is evident that the greatest single impact of climate change might be on human migration/displacement. The stern review report on the Economics of Climate Change, have highlighted the potential for additional mass migration as a result of climate change, with estimates ranging from 150-200 million (Stern, 2007) by 2050; according to Christian Aid the figure could go as high as 1 billion (Christian Aid, 2007). If we take the conservative figure, this means that by 2050 one in every 45 people in the world and one in every 7 people in Bangladesh will be displaced by climate change. Although many scholarly articles have warned about future floods of climate change induced migrants but still, no policy measures have been taken. Even the terms and concepts of referring climate change induced migrants are found dissimilar throughout the llteratures.Agalnst this backdrop. It is essential to have strategic and contingency plans to help address this emerging issue and recurring socioeconomic problem. In this context, the Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP II) has taken an initiative to carry out an indepth assessment and analysis of the trend and impact of population displacement due to disasters and climate change. Amongst several, four disasters such as riverbank erosion, floods, salinity and water logging have been selected as the main catalysts behind internal displacement.
The magnitude and intensity of the selected disasters have shown diverse characteristics. Flood is a very common disaster in Bangladesh, as the country has already faced devastating floods In previous decades. Floods affect up to about 80% of land of the country. In a normal year, 20-25% of the country is inundated by river spills and drainage congestion. Riverbank erosion also occurs at an alarming rate. It is estimated that the annual rate of erosion will increase 9% in the next 50 years and 18% in the next 100 years. Due to perpetual siltation in the rivers and as a consequence of unplanned development interventions on the river system, long-lasting water logging in human settlements has become a major issue for Bangladesh. Heavy rainfall in the country during monsoon may not cause floods but it triggers massive water logging problem in the coastal districts namely Satkhira, Jessore, and Khulna, causing massive displacement.
The Multi-stage Random Sampling technique was selected for conducting the study. The stages included the selected severely hazard prone districts, respective upazilas, unions, villages and the ultimate target households.
One upazila from each of the selected districts and subsequently one union from the respective upazilas were selected based on set criteria. The number of villages under the selected unions was one or more depending on the availability of the required number of sample households tor conducting the study.
The Simple Random Sampling was followed for identifying the sample respondent households (never displaced, temporarily displaced, and in-between temporarily and permanently displaced) from the selected villages (places of origin). The permanently displaced households were identified using the Snowball Sampling from the place of destination. Male and female respondents were selected from the sample households proportionately following the male and female ratio of the country. Only one respondent, either male or female, was interviewed from each of the sample households from places of origin and places of destination.
The sample size for the household survey in places of origin was 816 HHs in nine districts. The sample size for places of destination in the same 9 districts was 25% of that for the places of origin (i.e. 204). The locations of the permanently displaced households were collected from the places of origin, where they were no longer present.
For identifying the households in the places of origin 14 unions were covered and for identifying permanently displaced HHs at the places of destination 27 unions were covered. As per statistical obligation, a total of 1020 households needed to be surveyed. However, 94 households from places of destination were dropped since they could not be located. Thus, a total of 926 nouseholds (816 in places of origin and 110 in places of destination) were considered in this study.
The study has categorised the studied households into four segments such as, i) never displaced; ii) temporarily displaced; iii) in-between temporarily and permanently displaced; and finally iv) permanently displaced. The never displaced category includes households that are located in hazard-prone areas, frequently encountering distress situations but are never pushed to be displaced.Instead, they adapt/cope with the situation and are more resilient than the other types of households. The temporarily displaced category includes those households that tend to be displaced during the onset of disasters. These households are displaced temporarily to neighbors' and relatives' houses, adjacent elevated roads preferably on embankments, nearby shelters and other sustained structures, and return to their original habitat when the situation improves. The maximum staying duration of this category is 6 months in a year. The category in-between temporarily and permanently displaced includes those households that were displaced to adjacent areas but are not settled permanently; rather they tend to be displaced again and again. On the other hand, the permanently displaced category includes those households that are displaced permanently to distant locations presumably safe from the selected disasters. These households have little or no chance of becoming displaced further.
By fitting the surveyed households into the mentioned designated categories, it is found here that about 13% belong to the never displaced category, about 46% Delong to the temporarily displaced category, about 29% belong to the in-between temporary and permanent category and about 12% belong to the permanently displaced category. It is evident that the rate of either temporary or permanent displacement is comparatively higher than that of never displacement. This shows that people living in disaster-prone areas are somewhat more vulnerable and pushed to become displaced either temporarily or permanently.
In the baseiine situation of internal displacement, it has been found that about 62% of households in the study area were displaced temporarily and only 0.4% of households were displaced permanently due to floods. On the other hand, about 38% of households have no experience of displacement and have little or no intention to move.
In the case of riverbank erosion, it has been found that about 20% of households were displaced permanently and only 1% had no experience of displacement. However, a different type of displacement was found in the case of riverbank erosion i.e. about 79% of households belonged to the ’in-between' temporary and permanent displacement category. On the other hand, in the case of salinity ingress about 14% of households were displaced permanently, about 82% of households were displaced temporarily and about 4% of households, although iiving in salinity intruded areas, had no experience of either permanent or temporary displacement. In the case of waterlogging, about 13% of households were displaced permanently, about 84% of households were displaced temporarily and about 3% of households, although living in waterlogged areas, had no experience of either permanent or temporary displacement.
Trend analysis of internal displacement is very difficult since no data are available on this issue. In this section, some year-specific values have been considered estimating household responses in terms of experience of displacement in the previous years. These distributions have been made among only either temporarily or permanently displaced households through out their lifetime. This is nothing but a method of history recalling. It should be mentioned here that although the interviewed people were able to recall the events of several years from the earliest past, the study considered only the recent past since it was a more reliable account of what was recalled. Furthermore, the displacement rate of some years was estimated when catastrophic natural events had taken place. This pasttreno was assessed based on the details of those events remembered by victims.
Since there is no concrete policy or legislative guideline for internally displaced persons in Bangladesh, it is necessary to take essential steps to prepare policy directives. The directives on internal displacement will open an opportunity to bring together all relevant stakeholders to consider the role that each should play in protecting the rights of displaced populations. Based on the findings of this study, some strategic plans and institutional frameworks have been developed here for internal displacement.