Executive Summary
Historically, Bangladesh has faced various hydro-meteorological threats including cyclones, floods, salinity intrusion, storm surges, erosion, and drought. The changing climatic pattern also increases the effects of climate-induced sudden and slow-onset disasters. The geographical location, climate, and topography of Cox's Bazar create a unique environment where local communities are exposed to multiple natural hazards and experience recurring extreme weather events. As a result, the livelihoods of the people of Cox’s Bazar are under threat. The study was conducted in Teknaf Upazila (Sub-district) under Cox’s Bazar district to develop climate-smart and disaster-resilient economically viable livelihood options for the climate-vulnerable area. The study has adopted a multidisciplinary methodology to explore the climatic vulnerability and resilient livelihoods of the study area. The study has reviewed secondary information, relevant policies, and articles collected from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), and the Department of Disaster Management (DDM). Under this study, IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP), National Adaptation Plan (NAP), Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan, Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), National Plan for Disaster Management (NPDM, 2021 to 2025), Standing order on Disaster -2019, 8th Five-Year Plan of Bangladesh, Delta Plan, Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan, Southern Agricultural Master Plan, Agriculture Policy, Water Policy, Forest Policy, OECD Building Resilience Systems were reviewed and analyzed. Primary information (qualitative and quantitative) was collected through Participatory research using Household Survey (HHS), Focus Group Discussion (FGD), and Key Informant Interview (KII). A total of 402 households were surveyed randomly. The study also conducted a total of 12 FGDs with men, women, persons with disabilities, and market actors (input sellers and buyers) to understand the existing climate vulnerability, capacity, and resources to deal with shocks, capacity, and resource needs, access to services, access to market and finance, etc. From local to national levels, the study has captured opinions from different institutions by conducting 16 KIIs. Multi-hazard risk assessment, Local climatic scenario generation, climate projection, soil and surface and underground water salinity measurement, Cost-benefit analysis of Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA), GHG-Smart CSA identification, Sustainable and Resilient Livelihoods Identification, and Analytical Framework were applied in the study.
The study finds that the rising temperature scenario in Teknaf is higher, and the decreasing rainfall trend is lower than in Cox’s Bazar district. Similarly, the wind speed increasing trend is slightly higher in Teknaf than in Cox’s Bazar district average. The studied unions are highly vulnerable to rising temperatures, increasing wind speed, and decreasing rainfall trends. In all three studied unions, cyclones, heatwaves, seashore breaks, and agricultural drought increased in the last five years. The Sabrang union is highly disaster-vulnerable due to floods, strong wind, tidal inundation, riverbank erosion, thunderstorms, heat waves, cold waves, cyclones, and seashores. On the contrary, Hnila and Whykong are identified as a moderate risk of floods, flash floods, landslides, cyclones, tidal inundation, etc.
Due to the increasing trend of climate-induced disasters, farmers of Whykong and Sabrang are highly affected. In Sabrang, the people who depend on boat hawking for their livelihoods are also highly vulnerable. In all three unions, the number of day laborers and fishermen is high.
The study also demonstrates climate-induced calamities, including heatwaves, groundwater depletion, salinity, waterlogging, and heavy rainfall that severely damaged agriculture, homestead farming, livestock, poultry, etc. As a result, the livelihood-changing scenario is almost high in all three studied unions. Consequently, many locals including farmers, fishermen, and boat hawkers are changing their profession to ensure their livelihood.
Agricultural land loss is a common scenario in all unions because of salinity intrusion, water logging, riverbank erosion, drought, and conversion of agricultural land into residences and other development purposes. The agricultural land of Whykong is decreasing rapidly which is exerting pressure on agriculture. The forest coverage of the study area has also declined drastically. In Whykong, 3702.6 ha of dense forest is lost between 2013-2023. In the Sabrang Union, a huge land was lost due to bank erosion, and 70.1 hectares of land was lost due to river bank erosion between 2013 and 2023. Permanent and seasonal migration is a common scenario in the study area. Seasonally, in search of livelihood opportunities, many people migrate to another place. On the other hand, land loss is responsible for permanent migration. The highest trend for migration is found in the Sabrang union. Due to the loss of homestead land as well as agricultural production, economic and livelihood crisis, and freshwater crisis, some people of the studied unions will mitigate shortly.
A multidimensional analytical approach has identified resilient crop farming, homestead farming, fodder farming, agroforestry, betel leaf farming, seagrass and seaweed farming, value-added products from seagrass and seaweed, value-added products from mangroves, biofertilizer production, and horticulture are the potential sustainable climate-resilient livelihoods options for the study area.
In Hnila, under the project, BDRCS can promote resilient crop farming, homestead farming, slatted houses for livestock rearing, semi-scavenger housing for poultry rearing, resilient fodder farming, agro-forestry, handicrafts, and biofertilizer production.
In Sabrang, homestead farming, slatted houses for livestock rearing, semi-scavenger housing for poultry rearing, resilient fodder farming, seagrass, and seaweed farming, value-added products from seaweed and seagrass, value-added products from mangroves, biofertilizer production, and handcrafts are suitable as climate-resilient livelihood interventions.
Likewise, in Whykong resilient crop farming, homestead farming, slatted houses for livestock rearing, semi-scavenger housing for poultry rearing, resilient fodder farming, agro-forestry, biofertilizer production, and handicrafts are climate-resilient potential livelihood interventions.
But within a short time (6 months returnable), actionable climate-resilient livelihood interventions in all three unions are found as slatted houses for livestock rearing, semi-scavenger houses for poultry rearing, fodder farming (Salinity-tolerant and drought-tolerant fodder variety promotion (local-Dhoincha and HYV) and handicrafts. Value-added products from seagrass and seaweed (Pickle and molasses value chain development from mangrove as NbS (Keora-Sonneratia apetala and Goalpata-Nypa fruticans) can be the options for the Sabrang union.
In terms of crop-field farming, Salt-tolerant T. Aman (BR-22 and BR-23, Bina shail), Salt-tolerant BRRI dhan (33, 56, 57, and 62 BRRI dhan 40, 41, 53, 54, 65), Salt-tolerant Bina dhan (7, 8, 10 and 16), Salt-tolerant potato, (BARI Alo-22, CIP Clone -88,163), Salt-tolerant sweet Potato, (BARI Mishti Alo-8,9), Salt-tolerant pulses, (BARI Mug- 2,3,4,5,6, BM-01, BM-08 BARI Falon-1, BARI Sola-9), Short-duration oilseeds, (BARI Sharisha-14,15 BARI Chinabadam 9, BINA China badam-1, BINA China badam-2, BARI Soyabean-6 BARI Til-2,3,4) are the potential varieties for the study area. Salt-tolerant potato (BARI Alo-22, CIP Clone -88,163), Salt-tolerant sweet Potato (BARI Mishti Alo-8,9), beets, pepper, cabbage will be the perfect match for homestead farming. Regarding fodder Nepier-1, Nepier-2, Nepier-3, Nepier-4, Pakchang, Markiron, and Rokona, Dhoincha are the potential varieties.
In terms of climate change adaptation and mitigation, as well as GHG-smart and women and disability-inclusive resilient livelihoods, there is also a need to build capacity through training related to community-based, local-led climate solutions. In the short term, the BDRCS can promote those livelihood interventions that will be beneficial in a short time as nutrition support and revenue generation. In the medium and long term, nature-based solutions can be promoted to contribute to carbon sequestration. Possible engagement with different government and non-government organizations including the Department of Agriculture Extension, Department of Livestock, Department of Forest, Department of Women and Children Affairs, Department of Social Service, Bangladesh Water Development Board, and non-government organizations who are working with climate-resilient livelihoods and nature-based solutions in nationally and locally will be more effective to ensure climate-resilient communities.