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The IFRC Disaster Relief Emergency Fund (DREF) has approved a total allocation of CHF 349,920 from its Forecastbased Action (FbA) mechanism for the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BDRCS). The approved amount consists of an immediate allocation of CHF 21,909 for prepositioning, CHF 68,579 for readiness and CHF 259,432 automatically allocated to implement early actions once the defined triggers are met.
The FbA by the DREF is a Forecast-based Financing mechanism managed by the DREF. Allocations for the FbA by the DREF are made from a separate financial component of the DREF (MDR00004) and do not affect the reserves of the DREF appeal code MDR00001. Un-earmarked contributions to replenish the allocations are encouraged.
Summary of the early action protocol
The geographic location, land characteristics, multiplicity of rivers, and the monsoon climate make Bangladesh highly vulnerable to natural hazards. Flood is an annually recurring hazard with a larger impact- affecting lives, livelihoods and assets of poor and vulnerable populations.
Jamuna, Padma and Meghna are the major river systems in Bangladesh and this Early Action Protocol (EAP) covers flooding in Jamuna. People living along the Jamuna river are vulnerable to flooding; especially during the monsoon season (June to September). Floods have the greatest impact on people who are living in low-lying areas, live below the poverty line, live in fragile houses and have a number of dependent family members to care for. The direct impacts include personal security (deaths- by drowning, water-borne diseases, snakebites etc.), building and infrastructure damage/destruction (especially slum, mud huts, tin walled huts, public properties- schools, health facilities etc.), and loss of grains, crops and livestock. The economic cost of a flood is huge; for instance, the Government of Bangladesh in 1999 estimated a total economic loss of 1998 floods at 2 billion USD- equivalent to 6 per cent of the FY 1997/98 GDP.
As mandated by FbA by DREF, each EAP will be revised after activation or at the end of the lifespan of the EAP, i.e. five years, (in case of no activation during the lifespan of the EAP) to incorporate the learnings and make it compatible with the changing scenario. The flood EAP of BDRCS was activated during the 2020 monsoon floods in Jamuna river basin. This revised EAP is an effort to incorporate the learnings from the 2020 flood activation. Further, the revision is required to address the constraints posed by COVID-19 in implementing early actions identified under the existing EAP.
This revised EAP is not proposed to change the criteria of the activation trigger (Government Danger Level + 0.85 meter or equivalent to one in 10-year return period, with five-day lead time and duration more than three days using FFWC’s five-day lead time deterministic forecast). Nevertheless, from the recent 2020 flood, eight-day lead time was experienced instead of 10 days for readiness after pre-activation trigger using previous GloFAS version 2. From the stakeholder’s consultation, there was a recommendation to increase the lead time for the pre-activation. One of the key questions is what will be the success rate when pre-activation trigger also have activation trigger. Based on the recent analysis of the newer version of GloFAS (V3.1) shows a 60 per cent success rate of pre-activation with 15-day lead time also can reach the activation trigger.
As COVID-19 continue to create havoc in the country, this revised version of the EAP considers preparedness and awareness to contain the spread of COVID-19, especially during the activation of the EAP. The early action has considered a number of components to ensure the safety of the people served under the intervention.
As per the experience from activation in 2020, the number of targeted households under unconditional cash grant assistance is increased to 4,200 households (from 3,300 in the previous version of the EAP). The findings from the EAP evaluation show that cash transfer helped beneficiaries to reduce losses of livestock. FbF beneficiaries indicated to have lost 9 per cent of their cows and calves versus the comparison group losing 22 per cent of them. The cash also helped beneficiaries to reduce negative coping mechanisms - none of the FbF beneficiaries had to sell household assets (e.g., bed, furniture, cooking stoves, kitchen items, etc.), whereas 12 per cent of the comparison group had to adopt that strategy to cope with difficult economic conditions after the flood. Further, the support under the evacuation with boats is increased to 200 families considering the demand and effectiveness experienced from the 2020 activation. The flood EAP evaluation finding shows that 27 per cent of FbF beneficiaries evacuated adults after receiving an early warning, versus 11 per cent of respondents among the comparison group. Taking this into account, this revised version will ensure awareness amongst the community regarding the evacuation facility. This message will be disseminated during the dissemination of early warning.
Considering the impact of the wider area by the floods in Jamuna river basin and the existing capacity of BDRCS District Units, the number of districts to be covered under early action is 3 to 4 from the previous target of 2 to 3 districts.
This EAP has prioritized four following impacts:
• Human causality (deaths due to drowning and others)
• Loss of livelihood linked to livestock
• Loss of movable assets and food grains
• Household asset damage
This EAP cover flood-related early actions which are triggered by a forecast provided by the Flood Forecast and Warning Centre (FFWC) along with global forecast models. This EAP provides step-by-step instructions for the following early actions to be implemented to reduce the loss of lives, livestock and household assets. The proposed early actions are:
• Unconditional cash grant
• Evacuation transportation by boat
• Early warning dissemination for early action (evacuation support)
• Provision of basic first aid