A. Situation analysis
Description of the disaster Cyclone Amphan formed on 16 May 2020 over Indian Ocean and started moving north over the Bay of Bengal, toward north-east India coastal areas and south of Bangladesh. As per the special weather bulletin issued by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) on 17 May, Cyclone Amphan developed over the northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining area and will get “very severe” gradually. According to forecast, it will continue to move north over the Bay of Bengal and it could reach southern Khulna and Barisal Division. In anticipation of Cyclone Amphan, the BMD assigned danger signal number 7 for the maritime ports of Mongla, Payra along with coastal districts of Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, Jhalokathi, Pirojpur, Borguna, Patuakhali, Bhola, Barishal, Laxmipur, Chandpur and their offshore islands and chars3 . Meanwhile, maritime port of Chattogram and Cox’s Bazar along with coastal districts of Noakhali, Feni, Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar and their offshore islands and chars were put under the danger signal number 6. Based on the existing classification, it is the ‘great danger signal’.
According to BMD special weather bulletin, SL No 23, dated 19 May, the ‘super cyclone’ Amphan was over west central Bay and adjoining area and moved north-northeast wards and over same area (LAT.16.0°N, LONG. 86.7°E) and was centred at 6 am 19 May about 890km southwest of Chattagram port, 840km southwest of Cox’s Bazar port, 785km south-southwest of Mongla port. It was forecasted likely to move in a north-easterly direction and may cross Bangladesh coast between Khulna- Chattogram during late night 19 May to afternoon/evening of 20 May. Costal districts of Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, Jhalokathi, Pirojpur, Borguna, Patuakhali, Bhola, Barisal, Laxmipur, Chandpur and their off-shore islands and chars are under danger signal number 7 and remaining costal districts are under danger signal number 6. Under the influence of the ‘very severe’ cyclonic storm Amphan, it is anticipated that Feni, Chattagram and their offshore islands and chars are likely to be inundated by storm surge of 4-5 feet height above the normal astronomical tide. The total coastal districts are likely to experience wind speed up to 140-160kmph in gusts/ squalls with heavy to very heavy falls during the passage of storm. All fishing boats and trawlers over north bay and deep sea have been advised to take shelter immediately and will remain in the shelter till further notice.