Anticipatory Action Framework: Bangladesh Monsoon Floods - 2025 Version

Executive Summary

Bangladesh has a long history of anticipatory action (AA) for monsoon river floods, with extensive experience developed over the past decade. In January 2023, the Under-Secretary-General and Emergency Relief Coordinator (USG/ERC) approved a request from the Resident Coordinator in Bangladesh to expand the geographic reach of coordinated flood anticipatory action add anticipatory action framework for cyclones. This decision aligns with the Bangladesh Humanitarian Coordination Task Team (HCTT) strategy to strengthen proactive responses to predictable disasters.
The Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BDRCS) pioneered anticipatory action for monsoon floods in 2015, developing trigger thresholds and an Early Action Protocol (EAP). The first OCHA-coordinated AA framework was activated in 2020 and again in 2024, yielding valuable impact for communities at-risk of flooding as well as important lessons and insightful impact evaluations1 , which laid the foundation to further refine the anticipatory action approach. Building on these experiences, the 2025 version of the AA flood framework enhances early warning systems, strengthens coordination mechanisms, and expands funding allocations to improve disaster preparedness and response.
This framework is designed to activate anticipatory measures ahead of severe flooding by leveraging pre-agreed triggers, pre-positioned funding, and coordinated anticipatory humanitarian action. The approach ensures that humanitarian actors can provide timely assistance to at-risk communities, reducing loss of life and economic hardship. Key innovations include improved forecasting models, an updated multi-agency action plan, and strengthened collaboration with government and humanitarian partners.
The 2025 version of the framework maintains the expanded geographic coverage from previous versions, ensuring that more vulnerable communities benefit from anticipatory interventions. Additionally, efforts are underway to institutionalize AA within government systems, fostering a long-term, sustainable approach to disaster preparedness.
As Bangladesh remains one of the most flood-prone countries in the world and among the most frequent recipients of humanitarian funding for floods from the UN Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF), OCHA’s AA investments play a crucial role in enabling swift, coordinated, and evidence-based anticipatory humanitarian action. This framework serves as a model for anticipatory action globally, demonstrating how proactive measures can mitigate the impact of climate-related disasters and strengthen community resilience.