Climate Risk Country Profile - Azerbaijan

KEY MESSAGES

• Temperatures in Azerbaijan are projected to rise at a faster rate than the global average, with potential warming of 4.7°C by the 2090s over the 1986–2005 baseline, under the highest emissions pathway (RCP8.5).

• Maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to rise faster than the global average, which will amplify the impacts on human health, livelihoods, and ecosystems.

• The strongest warming is expected to occur during summer months, with average temperatures between July and September projected to rise by almost 6°C by the 2090s, under the RCP8.5 pathway.

• Increases in temperature of this magnitude could reduce agricultural productivity, exacerbate issues of desertification and soil salinity, and increase demand for irrigation, putting further pressure on the country’s water supply.

• A warmer climate would also pose multiple threats to public health in Azerbaijan, increasing the rate of heatrelated medical issues in urban areas such as Baku, and lengthening the seasonal window during which malaria occurs.

• There is a risk that the impacts of climate change will be disproportionately felt by those least able to adapt.
  For example, poorer communities in rural areas are more reliant on rain-fed agriculture, which is likely to be negatively impacted by more frequent droughts.

• Poorer communities are often dependent on poor quality water infrastructure, lack diversified income sources and assets, and will be least able to adapt their livelihoods to disaster risks such as drought and extreme heat.