Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Plantings of 2025 maize crops estimated at below‑average level, reflecting concerns for stunt disease outbreaks
- Maize exports preliminarily forecast at average levels in 2024/25 marketing year
- Retail prices of wheat flour, rice, bread and beef meat more than doubled year on year
- In first semester of 2024, over 50 percent of population reported to be below the poverty line
Plantings of 2025 maize crops estimated at below‑average level, reflecting concerns for stunt disease outbreaks
Planting of the 2025 maize crops is nearing completion. Official forecast points to 9.4 million hectares of planted area, about 16 percent below the previous five‑year average and the lowest acreage reported since 2019. The reduction in plantings is mainly due to farmers’ concerns for outbreaks of a stunt disease (spiroplasma) transmitted by leafhoppers, that have caused severe maize crop losses also in previous seasons. Adequate soil moisture levels are reported for early planted crops that are at emergence and vegetative development stages. Overall, yield prospects are favourable as precipitation during the January‑March 2025 period is forecast at average level.
The harvest of 2024 wheat and barley crops started last November and will be concluded in January. Wheat production is estimated at near‑average 17.6 million tonnes, respectively about 10 and 40 percent above the 2023 and 2022 low levels. Higher year‑on‑year wheat domestic prices and declining production costs supported farmers’ sowing intentions, resulting in 6.3 million hectares of planted area, near the five‑year average but about 7 percent above the 2022 and 2023 levels. Dry weather conditions during the developing stages between July and September slightly curbed crop yields. Similarly, inadequate precipitation amounts hampered development of barley crops in key producing provinces of Cordoba and Buenos Aires. However, the 2024 barley output is anticipated at above‑average 5.1 million tonnes, as an increase in planted area offset the low yields.
Maize exports preliminarily forecast at average levels in 2024/25 marketing year
Exports of maize, the country’s major exportable cereal, are expected to be at near‑average 35 million tonnes in the 2024/25 marketing year (March/February), reflecting the ample exportable surplus from the above‑average 2024 outcome. Maize exports rebounded from the low levels of 2023, when dry weather conditions caused severe crop losses. Exports of wheat are estimated at 8 million tonnes in the 2023/2024 marketing year (December/November), about 25 percent below the average, due to limited supply from two consecutive years of low outturn. In 2024/25, exports of wheat are forecast to increase year on year and reach the level of previous five‑year average.
Retail prices of wheat flour, rice, bread and beef meat more than doubled year on year
Wholesale prices of yellow maize seasonally increased in the July to November period. In October 2024, prices were 115 percent higher year on year, due to the scarce availability of grains from the 2023 drought‑stricken harvest. Wholesale wheat grain prices declined in November 2024 for the third consecutive month, following the decrease in international prices and the arrival on markets of the newly harvested crops. However, wheat prices remained more than double the level of one year before, reflecting the below‑average production harvested in 2022 and 2023. Retail prices of most food items were still significantly higher year on year, with rice, wheat flour, bread and beef meat more than doubling their price from one year earlier in November 2024.
In first semester of 2024, over 50 percent of population reported to be below poverty line
According to official sources, in the first semester of 2024, about 25 million people, over 50 percent of the population, were estimated to be below the poverty line , against about 42 percent in the second semester of 2023. Similarly, the rate of extreme poverty increased from about 12 percent of the population in the second semester of 2023 to 18 percent in the first semester of 2024. The severe increase in the poverty rate is mainly due to the 30 percent contraction in government spending as well as the loss of households’ purchasing power caused by the high inflation.
In December 2023, the government devaluated the official value of the Argentine peso from ARS 364/USD 1 to ARS 800/USD 1. As a result, also the parallel currency “dollar blue” exchange rate devaluated significantly and inflation started increasing, reaching a record-high level of 292.2 percent in April 2024, the highest rate since 1991. In the second half of the year, inflation and devaluation, that still remained above the previous year level, started exhibiting a slowdown. This is due to a set of restrictive fiscal and monetary policies, as well as the blanqueo policy, an asset regularization process that contributed to the currency appreciation trend. However, the economic activity is estimated to contract by 3.5 percent in 2024 .