811 - WTNT31 KNHC 171449 - TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED NOV 17 1999
...POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LENNY HEADING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WITH 135 MPH WINDS...ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY... ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT... ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MAINLAND PUERTO RICO...NOT INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...MAY BE DOWNGRADED LATER TODAY IF THE HURRICANE CONTINUES ON A NORTHEAST TRACK.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED BY PLANE AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...75 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX.
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF POWERFUL HURRICANE LENNY WILL BE CROSSING THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN OVER THE WARNING AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS. LENNY IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...THE FIFTH OF THE 1999 SEASON. STRONGER WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. A HAM RADIO REPORT INDICATES THAT A WIND GUST TO 75 MPH...120 KPH...WAS OBSERVED AT ST. CROIX.
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY ESTIMATED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 942 MB...27.81 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THESE RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNING AREA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN THE WARNED AREA.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.1 N... 65.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM AST AND 3 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.
AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.