Sub-Sahara Africa: Conflict Risk Assessment Report Sep 2002

Report
from Carleton University
Published on 30 Sep 2002
Prepared by: Caroline Delany and Sonja Varga*
With the generous support of the Canadian International Development Agency.
OVERVIEW

This report provides an indicators-based assessment of conflict risk in Sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis crosses nine interrelated issue areas identified as underlying potential for conflict development: History of Armed Conflict; Governance and Political Instability; Militarization; Population Heterogeneity; Demographic Stress; Economic Performance; Human Development; Environmental Stress; and International Linkages.

CIFP risk assessment reports are regional in focus, under the premise that risk potential is a relative term, and that a regional comparative focus allows not only the identification of areas of concern within target countries but provides a means of assigning relative priority to different areas of concern on a regional basis.

CIFP assesses country risk by means of an overall country risk index. The higher the risk index, the greater the assessed risk of conflict development, escalation, or continuation that country faces. The risk index consists of the weighted average of nine composite indicators, corresponding to the nine issue areas outlined above, each of which consists of the average of its composite lead indicators. In all, 49 lead indicators are assessed as part of this index.

Risk indices occur on a scale of 0 to 12, where 0 to 3.4 are considered low risk, 3.5 to 6.4 are considered medium risk, 6.5 to 9.4 are considered high risk, and 9.5-12 are considered very high risk.

This risk assessment has been divided into five regions. These regions are: West Africa (Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote d Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo), Central Africa (Angola, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Niger, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo and Zambia), East Africa (Burundi, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda), the Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan), and Southern Africa (Botswana, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe).

This risk assessment begins with an overall summary of the results as they apply to the entire Sub-Saharan region. Then the assessment was divided along the sub regions as listed above and a more detailed analysis was provided for the report. Due to the large number of countries evaluated in this risk assessment, it was necessary for the analysis to be fairly brief. The results from the indicator-based analysis serve to focus analytical attention on high-risk issue areas, in order to continue with more in-depth qualitative elaboration. For more detailed risk reports please refer to CIFP s West Africa and Great Lakes reports.

Note: *David Carment, Principal Investigator =A9 September 2002. Feedback is encouraged, and may be sent to <cifp@carleton.ca>. http://www.carleton.ca/cifp

Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) Project, September 2002 The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University

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