Angola + 2 more

SADC Food Security Quarterly Bulletin Oct 1999

Source
Posted
Originally published


Harare - Zimbabwe
Highlights

A wet season in prospect for southern Africa but below normal rainfall predicted for northern Tanzania...

Climate experts continue to suggest better-than-average rainfall for South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland, Mozambique and most of Zambia, Zimbabwe and Malawi on account of the current La Nina episode. Predictions also point to below normal rains for northern Tanzania and Namibia and southern Angola.

Late onset of the rains delays planting/land preparation in most SADC countries...

The prime planting period of October has passed by without significant soaking rains, thus restricting planting. Farmers have resorted to dry-planting in Malawi, South Africa and Tanzania. Germination of early planted crops is reported in Mozambique.

SADC faces an overall cereal deficit of 2.77 million tonnes for the 1999/2000 marketing year...

Latest assessments project a regional deficit of 2.77 million tonnes for all cereals combined; total cereal availability of 24.00 million tonnes is insufficient to cover total requirements estimated at 26.76 million tonnes. Regional deficits are projected in all cereals compared to last year when deficits were only in wheat and sorghum/millet.

Regional maize deficit revised from 1.02 million tonnes assessed in June to 849,000 tonnes at present...

A SADC maize deficit of 849,000 tonnes is assessed, reflecting an improvement in supplies since earlier assessments had put the deficit at 1.02 million tonnes. Improved supplies were mostly accounted for by increased maize production estimates in South Africa. National maize surpluses are assessed for South Africa (202,000 tonnes), Malawi (447,000 tonnes), Tanzania (204,000 tonnes), and Mozambique (161,000 tonnes).

Limited availability of exportable maize surpluses imply reliance on imports from further afield...

The maize import requirements for the 1999/2000 marketing year may have to be covered through extra-regional trade due to the inadequacy of SADC supplies.

The wheat deficit/import requirement has improved to 886,000 tonnes from 1.19 million tonnes assessed earlier... Following significant improvements in the 1999 wheat harvests in South Africa and Zimbabwe, the assessed deficit has been reduced from earlier assessments of 1.19 million tonnes to 886,000 tonnes. Latest estimates put the 1998/99 SADC cereal harvest at 19.54 million tonnes against 20.80 million tonnes produced last season.The harvest also falls short of the 5-year average of 23.16 million tonnes. The decline was occasioned by poor growing conditions characterised by incessant rains early in the season, and prolonged mid-season dry spells in several countries.

Foreword

This edition of the SADC Quarterly Food Security Bulletin provides an outlook on rainfall prospects for the 1999/2000 crop season, based on a seasonal assessment issued by the Southern African Regional Climate Forecast Forum (SARCOF) as well as the National Meteorological Services in each member State. Also highlighted is the current food security position for all countries, together with the latest, and hopefully, the final forecasts of regional crop production for the 1998/99 crop season and its impact on food availability and requirements for the 1999/2000 marketing year.

The bulletin also provides an update on the regional cereal import/export programmes for the 1999/2000 marketing year. Also highlighted is the urgent need for humanitarian assistance for the growing numbers of internally displaced populations in Angola following an upsurge in hostilities.

Food security analyses have been compiled for the 12 SADC Member States for which information is available. There is still no analysis for the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Seychelles (the last two member States to join the Community). Such analyses are to be compiled as information becomes available from the respective countries.

This bulletin is based on information supplied by National Early Warning Systems (NEWS) in each of the SADC member States as well as the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) network in Southern Africa. Remotely sensed information was provided by the SADC Remote Sensing Unit. The assistance of all participating parties is acknowledged and greatly appreciated.

Regional assessment

I. WEATHER PROSPECTS FOR THE 1999/2000 CROPPING SEASON:

Climate experts predict a wet season for southern SADC and below-normal rainfall in the north...

Latest observations by climatic experts continue to suggest a high probability of better-than-average rainfall in Southern Africa during the 1999/2000 crop growing season. A seasonal forecast issued by the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) in September suggests high probabilities of normal to above-normal rainfall conditions over much of southern SADC during the period October 1999 - March 2000. Also predicted are high probabilities of above-normal to normal rainfall over the south-eastern part of the region, covering eastern South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland and southern Mozambique.

However, there are high probabilities of below-normal rainfall in the northern and eastern Tanzania throughout the period. There are also high probabilities of below-normal rainfall in the south-west between October and December 1999, covering Namibia and southern Angola.

State of the global climate prediction indictors...

The Forum reviewed the state of the global climate system and its implications for this region, taking into account the following factors

  • the slowly redeveloping La Niña episode, and
  • sea-surface temperatures over much of the tropical Indian Ocean and over the South Atlantic oceans and the associated atmospheric circulation patterns.

In general, negative sea-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean (La Niña) have been associated with above-normal rainfall conditions over much of the southern part of the subcontinent, particularly during the second half of the season, and with below-normal rainfall conditions in the far north-eastern part of the region. However, Indian and Atlantic Ocean sea-surface temperature anomalies and the associated atmospheric circulation can significantly modulate the signal from the equatorial Pacific.

The regional climate assessment began with consensus agreement that the 1998/99 La Niña, which was showing signs of dying out in June/July of 1999, will redevelop as a weak to moderate La Niña over the forecast period. Tropical Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures are expected to remain close to average, or slightly above. The warm event in the eastern South Atlantic Ocean is expected to persist through the forecast period.

The experts established probability distributions to indicate the likelihood of above-normal, normal or below-normal rainfall for each area as indicated in Maps A - and B. Above-normal rainfall is defined as within the wettest third of recorded rainfall amounts in each region; below-normal rainfall is defined as within the driest third of rainfall amounts; normal is the third centered around the climatological median.

OCTOBER - DECEMBER 1999

Below-normal rainfall in northern Tanzania, northern Mozambique, Namibia into south-western Angola...

A high probability of below-normal rainfall is likely over northern and eastern Tanzania, the northern half of Malawi and northern Mozambique, and over most of Namibia and south-west Angola. Normal to below-normal rainfall is the most likely outcome over southern Botswana, and over the Seychelles.

Above-normal rainfall in DRC, western Angola, Swaziland, Lesotho and eastern South Africa...

On the other hand, high probabilities of above-normal rainfall are forecast for central parts of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the far north-western parts of Angola, and the south-eastern flank, which includes Swaziland, Lesotho and the south-eastern areas of South Africa. Normal rainfall in central Angola, western Tanzania, Zimbabwe, central South Africa and south-west Mozambique.

There is a broad band from central Angola to south-western Tanzania, where probabilities of normal rainfall conditions are dominant. High probabilities of normal rainfall are also indicated in a zone stretching from the south-western Cape in South Africa into southern Zimbabwe and south-western Mozambique and in Mauritius. Normal to above normal rainfall is most likely over northern Botswana, northern Zimbabwe, central Mozambique and the southern half of Malawi.

JANUARY-MARCH 2000

Above-normal rainfall is likely in Angola, DRC, Zambia, South Africa, Namibia, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi and Tanzania...

High probabilities of above-normal rainfall are predicted over the Seychelles and Mauritius, and over the bulk of the south-western and central areas of the sub-region, which includes parts of western South Africa, Namibia, Angola, DRC, Zambia, central and eastern Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi and central and southern Tanzania. Above-normal rainfall but with somewhat lower probabilities is also expected over the south-central interior which includes eastern Namibia, Botswana, western Zimbabwe, and southern Zambia.

Mozambique, and for the coastal belt of Angola and northern Namibia, and central DRC. The wedge over south-eastern South Africa and the south-western half of Lesotho has high probabilities of normal to above-normal rainfall.

Below-normal rainfall is forecast to persist in northern Tanzania...

The northern part of Tanzania is the only area where high probabilities of below-normal rainfall are forecast during the period under review.

Land preparation and planting in progress in most countries...

Lack of soaking rains has restricted crop planting in most countries. As the prime planting period of October passed by with no significant rainfall being received, farmers resorted to dry-planting in Malawi and Tanzania. In South Africa, showers early in October were not enough to allow for widespread planting. A late onset of the rains has also delayed planting in the main grain regions of Swaziland, Zimbabwe, parts of southern and central Mozambique extending into southern Malawi. Germination of early plantings was, however, reported in parts of southern Mozambique.

II. 1999/2000 MARKETING YEAR CEREAL SUPPLY UPDATE:

The latest SADC food security position for the 1999/2000 marketing year suggests an overall regional cereal shortfall of 2.77 million tonnes as regional cereal supply, assessed at 24.00 million tonnes, falls short of the total requirements of 26.76 million tonnes (including a desired strategic grain reserve (SGR) of 1.94 million tonnes). On an individual commodity basis, all the cereals are assessed as showing shortfalls.

National-level maize surpluses are anticipated only in South Africa (2.02 million tonnes), Mozambique (161,000 tonnes), Malawi (447,000 tonnes) and Tanzania (204,000 tonnes) due to high carry-over stocks brought forward from the 1998/99 marketing year in South Africa and improved production in the other countries cited above. All the other SADC countries face maize deficits/import requirements ranging from 5,000 tonnes in Swaziland to 929,000 tonnes in Zimbabwe. As a result of the overall regional cereal deficit, countries in the region will have to import significant amounts of their import requirements from outside the region. Available information suggests that officially held regional stocks for all cereals are very low as farmers have tended to hold on to their stocks due to poor producer prices being offered, particularly in Zimbabwe and Zambia and limited access to markets in Mozambique.

The UN High Commission for Refugees has confirmed an influx of Angolan refugees in recent weeks into south-western Zambia and northern Namibia largely because of fighting between government forces and the UNITA movement in Angola's Moxico province, which borders western Zambia.

III. PROGRESS WITH CEREAL IMPORT/ EXPORT PROGRAMMES:

While a regional maize deficit of 849,000 tonnes is assessed for the 1999/2000 marketing year, SADC countries had a combined maize import programme of 1.09 million tonnes out of which commercial imports amounting to 432,000 tonnes had been received by the end of October. Wheat imports received to date amount to 626,000 tonnes out of the overall SADC wheat import programme of 1.29 million tonnes.

While unofficial cross-border trade is known to take place among population groups close to national bounderies in Malawi and Mozambique, local authorities in Mozambique's Zambesia province (Milange district) are reported to have banned peasant farmers from selling their surplus maize across the border in Malawi. This has been prompted by moves to preserve stocks but local farmers complain that Malawi is the only market for their surplus crops. Despite this move, clandestine maize exports into Malawi are reportedly continuing in exchange for Malawian sugar.

Latest Annual Cereal Balance for SADC region by commodity

Sadc - Summary

ANNUAL CEREAL BALANCE
MARKETING YEAR (Vary by Country)
1999/2000
Thousands of Metric Tons




Millet/
All

Maize
Wheat
Rice
Sorghum
Cereals
Cassava
A. Domestic Availability
18190
3404
704
1697
23995
12514
A.1 Opening Stocks
1538
1352
71
126
3087
40
Formal/SGR
1395
1347
61
103
2907
0
On Farm
143
5
10
21
179
20
Other
0
0
0
1
1
20
A.2 Gross Harvest
16652
2052
633
1571
20908
12474
B. Gross Domestic Requirements
17601
3836
996
2386
24820
11171
C. Desired SGR Carryover Stocks
1439
454
10
41
1943
20
D. Domestic Shortfall/Surplus
-849
-886
-302
-731
-2768
1323
E. Commodity Cross Substitution
-282
0
27
363
108
-327
F. Imports
1085
1287
335
66
2773
0
F.1 Received
432
653
66
12
1163
0
Commercial
432
626
66
12
1136
0
Food Aid
0
27
0
0
27
0
F.2 Expected
653
635
269
54
1611
0
Commercial
575
635
259
54
1522
0
Food Aid
78
0
10
0
88
0
G. Exports
1092
92
0
5
1189
0
Committments Shipped
152
4
0
0
156
0
Committments Not Yet Shipped
940
88
0
5
1033
0
H. Import Gap
-1138
0
0
-307
-1076
0
I. Forecasted Closing Stock
300
763
70
0
867
1016
J. Current Stock
6166
855
93
132
7246
0

Situation by country:

ANGOLA

Area: 1,247,000 km2.

Description: Food deficit; renewed civil disturbances disrupt food production and distribution; average actual per caput consumption far below nutritional requirements.

Population/Growth rate: 13.4 million (1999 estimate)/1.7% per annum.

Marketing year: July - June.

Major domestic food crops: Cassava, maize.

Estimated per caput cereal consumption: 70 kg per annum.

Share of staple foods in total calorie intake: Cereals 35% (maize 22%; wheat 7%; rice 2%; sorghum/millet 4%); cassava 29%.

Seasonal Forecasts/Outlook for the 1999/2000 Crop Season:

Cereal production prospects for the 1999/2000 season look gloomy inspite of current forecasts of a high probability of good rains this season. Production is likely top be hampered by the escalating civil war between government troops and UNITA rebels, which has forced people to flee to the relative safety of government-controlled cities. The fighting, which has intensified in recent months in the main cereal growing areas of central highlands, has led to displacement of over a million people. Most refugees are now camped in barren terrain in cities such as Huambo, Malange, Kuito, Luena and Uige where they are unlikely to grow crops.

1999/2000 Marketing Year Cereal Supply Update:

Although no report on the food security situation has been received from the National Early Warning Unit, reports from NGOs and UN agencies indicate worsening food security prospects as people flee from their homes with nothing or little of their harvested foods stuffs due to the escalating civil war. Unconfirmed reports indicate that more than 200 people are already dying of starvation daily and increasing levels of malnutrition among children.

On-going humanitarian food assistance provided through WFP and other NGOs is being hampered by the conflict as many roads to settled populations have been cut off. As a result, food prices in provincial capitals, where more and more are getting settled on a daily basis, have risen significantly further increasing food insecurity among the displaced population.

Progress with Cereal Import/Export Programmes:

Based on actual cereal imports achieved last year, it is expected that 220,000 tonnes of wheat, 70,000 tonnes of rice and 35,000 tonnes of maize may be commercially imported to partially cover the existing domestic cereal deficit of 503,000 tonnes. In addition, 180,000 tonnes of food aid imports are expected although current pledges from donors fall short of this amount. Donors are urged to provide more food aid and also provide logistic support to humanitarian organizations in the country.

Latest Annual Cereal Balance of Angola

ANNUAL CEREAL BALANCE  
REFERENCE YEAR (April- March)
1999/2000 
Thousands of Metric Tons 

 

  

  

 
Sorgh/
All

 

  
Maize
Wheat
Rice
Millet
Cereals
Cassava
A. Domestic Availability
443
5
9
107
564
3150
A.1 Opening Stocks @ 1st April
15
5
4
5
29
20
Formal/SGR
5
5
4
0
14
0
On Farm
10
0
0
5
15
20
Other
0
0
0
0
0
0
A.2 Gross Harvest
428
0
5
102
535
3130
B. Gross Domestic Requirements
643
220
73
102
1038
3130
C. Desired SGR Carryover Stocks
15
5
4
5
29
20
D. Domestic Shortfall/Surplus
-215
-220
-68
0
-503
0
E. Commodity Cross Substitution
0
0
0
0
0
0
F. Imports
91
220
70
0
381
0
F.1 Received
0
0
0
0
0
0
Commercial
0
0
0
0
0
0
Food Aid
0
0
0
0
0
0
F.2 Expected
91
220
70
0
381
0
Commercial
35
220
70
0
325
0
Food Aid
56
0
0
0
56
0
G. Exports
0
0
0
0
0
0
Committments Shipped
0
0
0
0
0
0
Committments Not Yet Shipped
0
0
0
0
0
0
H. Import Gap
-124
0
0
0
-122
0
I. Forecasted Closing Stock
0
5
6
5
0
20
J. Current Stock @ 30 Sept. 1999
na
na
na
na
0
na

TANZANIA

Area: 886,000 km2.

Description: Marginally self-sufficient with maize and rice surpluses in some years; internal food distribution problems.

Population/Growth rate: 33.32 million (1999 estimate)/3.0% per annum.

Marketing year: June - May.

Major domestic food crops: Maize, roots, tubers, sorghum, pulses, plantains, rice.

Estimated per caput cereal consumption: 137 kg per annum.

Share of staple foods in total calorie intake: Cereals 38% (maize 26%; sorghum/millet 6%; rice 5%; wheat 1%); cassava 25%; pulses 5%; bananas 2%; sweet potato 2%.

Early Prospects for the 1999/2000 Crop Season:

A seasonal forecast issued by the Directorate of Meteorology in mid-September shows that the short (Vuli) rains are expected to be generally below normal in areas such as northern coast belt, north eastern areas and the Lake Victoria basin. As for uni-modal rainfall areas, normal seasonal rains are only expected over Rukwa, Mbeya, Ruvuma and Kigoma, while the central parts of the country are expected to receive below normal rains. As a result of these predictions, farmers in affected areas have been urged to plant early and use fast maturing and drought resistant crop varieties.

The Vuli rains have already started over parts of the Lake Victoria basin, signaling the start of 1999/2000 short-rain season. Currently, land preparation is the main field activity at this stage while early planting has been observed over the western tip of the Lake Victoria Basin.

1999/2000 Marketing Year Cereal Supply Update:

Following the recent Joint Crop and Food Supply Situation Assessment Mission carried out by the Government in conjunction with UN Agencies and NGOs, total cereal production has been revised slightly upwards from an earlier forecast of 3.76 million tonnes to 3.89 million tonnes due to an upward revision in maize production to 2.90 million tonnes while production for the other cereals has been revised downwards.

Maize is now assessed as having a surplus of 204,000 tonnes; surpluses are also assessed for the non-cereal staples while sorghum/millet, rice and wheat show deficits of 597,000 tonnes, 47,000 tonnes and 45,000 tonnes respectively.

The upward revision in total cereal production has meant that a reduced overall cereal deficit of 484,000 tonnes (down 589,000 tonnes assessed earlier) is currently estimated. However, due to problems of transporting surpluses of bulky non-cereal staples to deficit regions/districts, it is estimated that some 376,000 tonnes of the domestic cereal deficit might not be substituted by non-cereal surpluses.

Progress with Cereal Import/Export Programmes:

Although no report of import receipts has yet been received, indications are that 170,000 tonnes of commercial imports and 20,000 tonnes of food aid will be imported during the 1999/2000 marketing year. This situation would leave an import gap of 186,000 tonnes of cereals, for which no import plans have yet been made. Current projections point to an estimated 1.6 million people experiencing localized food shortages by December and it therefore imperative that imports are received soon.

Latest Annual Cereal Balance of Tanzania

ANNUAL CEREAL BALANCE 
MARKETING YEAR (June - May)
1999/2000
Thousands of Metric Tons

 



Sorgh/
All

 
 
Maize
Wheat
Rice
Millet
Cereals
Cassava
A. Domestic Availability
3123
95
436
533
4187
1898
A.1 Opening Stocks @ 1st June
221
55
26
0
302
0
Formal/SGR
221
55
26
0
302
0
On Farm
0
0
0
0
0
0
Other
0
0
0
0
0
0
A.2 Gross Harvest
2902
40
410
533
3885
1898
B. Gross Domestic Requirements
2769
139
483
1130
4521
1273
C. Desired SGR Carryover Stocks
150
0
0
0
150
0
D. Domestic Shortfall/Surplus
204
-45
-47
-597
-484
625
E. Commodity Cross Substitution
-204
0
27
285
108
-327
F. Imports
125
45
20
0
190
0
F.1 Received
0
0
0
0
0
0
Commercial
0
0
0
0
0
0
Food Aid
0
0
0
0
0
0
F.2 Expected
125
45
20
0
190
0
Commercial
105
45
20
0
170
0
Food Aid
20
0
0
0
20
0
G. Exports
0
0
0
0
0
0
Committments Shipped
0
0
0
0
0
0
Committments Not Yet Shipped
0
0
0
0
0
0
H. Import Gap
0
0
-0
-312
-186
0
I. Forecasted Closing Stock
275
0
0
0
0
298
J. Current Stock @ 30 Sept. 1999
63
na
na
na
63
0


ZAMBIA

Area: 741,000 km2.

Description: Marginally self-sufficient with irregular maize surpluses; internal food distribution problems; land-locked.

Population/Growth rate: 9.93 million (1999 estimate)/2.8% per annum.

Marketing year: May - April.

Major domestic food crops: Maize.

Estimated per caput cereal consumption: 147 kg per annum.

Share of staple foods in total calorie intake: Cereals 69% (maize 62%; wheat 4%; sorghum/millet 2%).

Early Prospects for the 1999/2000 Crop Season:

The first seasonal forecast by the Department of Meteorology indicates the prevalence of normal to above normal rains during the 1999/2000 cropping season. However, the north eastern parts of the country are expected to receive less than normal rains during the period between October and December 1999. The whole country is expected to receive normal to above normal rains between January and March 2000.

Land preparation is underway throughout the country and current indications are that seed and fertilizers are readily available for those who can afford the steep prices. However, small-scale farmers who depend on Government loans for inputs are facing an uncertain season as fertilizer imports for such purposes have not yet been fulfilled. The Government will have to import the needed fertilizers soon to avoid shortages adversely affecting small-scale production.

1999/2000 Marketing Year Supply Update:

Current food security assessments indicate a reduced overall cereal deficit of 322,000 tonnes (down from 380,000 tonnes assessed earlier) as a result of a downward revision in total requirements from 1.48 million tonnes to 1.43 million tonnes. Of this shortfall, the maize deficit alone is assessed at 326,000 tonnes and rice at 6,000 tonnes while wheat and sorghum/millet have surpluses each of 3,000 tonnes and 8,000 tonnes respectively. As indicated in the June Bulletin, the current overall deficit is no cause for concern as the indicated maize deficit can be covered by surpluses in non-cereal staples like cassava while rice is normally covered through commercial imports.

Progress with Cereal Import/Export Programmes:

Although no report has been made on the import/export programmes, it is expected that private traders are going to cover any residual deficits in cereals through commercial imports. In addition large informal imports of maize are anticipated from neighbouring Malawi and Mozambique.

Latest Annual Cereal Balance of Zambia

ANNUAL CEREAL BALANCE
MARKETING YEAR (May - April)
1999/2000
Thousands of Metric Tons

 

 

 

Sorgh/
All

 

 
Maize
Wheat
Rice
Millet
Cereals
Cassava
A. Domestic Availability
891
115
11
95
1111
969
A.1 Opening Stocks @ 1 May
35
25
1
0
61
0
Formal/SGR
35
25
1
0
61
0
On Farm
0
0
0
0
0
0
Other
0
0
0
0
0
0
A.2 Gross Harvest
856
90
10
95
1050
969
B. Gross Domestic Requirements
1187
112
17
87
1403
585
C. Desired SGR Carryover Stocks
30
0
0
0
30
0
D. Domestic Shortfall/Surplus
-326
3
-6
8
-322
383
E. Commodity Cross Substitution
0
0
0
0
0
0
F. Imports
0
0
0
0
0
0
F.1 Received
0
0
0
0
0
0
Commercial
0
0
0
0
0
0
Food Aid
0
0
0
0
0
0
F.2 Expected
0
0
0
0
0
0
Commercial
0
0
0
0
0
0
Food Aid
0
0
0
0
0
0
G. Exports
50
2
0
0
52
0
Committments Shipped
50
2
0
0
52
0
Committments Not Yet Shipped
0
0
0
0
0
0
H. Import Gap
-376
0
-6
0
-373
0
I. Forecasted Closing Stock
0
1
0
8
0
383
J. Current Stock @ 30 Sept. 1999
na
na
na
na
0
na

Terminology

Total domestic availability: Opening stocks plus gross domestic production.

Opening stocks, actual: Carryover stocks of commodities held by marketing agencies, millers, merchants (and farmers, if available) at the beginning of a marketing year. Includes strategic reserves stocks, if held.

Gross production: Estimated or forecasted harvested production.

Total requirements: Gross consumption requirements plus closing stock requirement plus expected exports.

Consumption requirements: Aggregated domestic consumption requirements (food and non food) over the full marketing year.

Closing stock requirements: Sum of working stocks, strategic reserves and farm stock requirements (if available).

Expected Exports: Forecast level of exports over the full marketing year including intra SADC trade.

Domestic balance: Total domestic availability less total requirements.

Commodity cross substitutions: Required substitutions between different cereals owing to non-availability of specific cereal.

Shortfall/Surplus: Domestic balance after taking account of commodity cross substitutions. Under normal circumstances, a shortfall (negative domestic balance) indicates an import requirement, while a surplus (positive domestic balance) indicates amounts available over and above currently foreseen requirements.

Current import arrangements: Sum of imports (commercial and aid) so far received and still expected this year.

Commercial imports received: Quantities received by millers and/or marketing boards so far this marketing year.

Commercial imports expected: Quantities contracted for delivery within the current marketing year but not yet received.

Food aid received: Quantities received by millers and marketing boards so far this marketing year.

Food aid expected: Quantities pledged for delivery in the current marketing year but not yet received.

Uncovered shortfall/unallocated surplus: Shortfall/Surplus plus current import arrangements.

Estimated closing stock: Projected end of marketing year national cereal stocks on the basis of current import/export arrangements.

Current stock level: Stocks of commodities held by marketing agencies, millers, merchants (and farmers, if available) at the end of the current reporting period.

Cereal self-sufficiency index: Gross domestic cereal production as a percentage of gross cereal consumption requirements.

Cereal availability index: Total cereal availability (total domestic availability plus net imports) as a percentage of cereal consumption and stock requirements.

Food aid dependency index: Expected cereal aid as a percentage of total cereal consumption and stock requirements.