FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
Higher probability of above average seasonal rains in 2017/18, with planting of 2018 cereal crops underway
Cereal production in 2017 estimated to be above average
Inflation rate declined, but remains at elevated level
Improved food security conditions due to larger agricultural output, although higher prices continue to constrain food access
Above-average rains forecast, with planting of 2018 cereal crop underway
Planting of the 2018 cereal crops is underway. Below-average rains were received in October, but this was followed by above-average precipitation at the start of November in the main cereal-growing central regions. Weather forecasts point to a higher likelihood of above-average rains during the maize-growing period (December 2017 and March 2018) in most parts of the country, indicating generally positive production prospects for 2018.
Above-average cereal harvest gathered in 2017
Despite the below-average precipitation in localized areas of the main cereal-producing central provinces, rains were generally sufficient to satisfy the crop water requirements for maize, the principal cereal crop. Beneficial weather was also observed in the minor cereal-producing provinces and, overall, the 2017 national cereal output is estimated at a well above-average level of about 2.9 million tonnes, 19 percent up on an annual basis.
Inflation rate declined, but remained at an elevated level
Prices of maize flour and rice in Luanda were 5 and 8 percent, respectively, higher compared to their year-earlier values as of August 2017, but the year-on-year gains were well below the levels registered in the corresponding month in 2016. Mirroring this trend, the annual inflation rate declined from a peak of 42 percent in December 2016 to 29 percent in October 2017.
Larger agricultural production improves food security conditions
Overall, an improvement in food security conditions is expected in 2017/18 compared to the previous year, mostly on account of a larger agricultural output. However, the higher food prices are expected to constrain food access. In the previous year, an estimated 756 000 people were in need of food assistance, based on the results from the Angolan Vulnerability Assessment Committee’s evaluation. The estimated number of food insecure for this year has not yet been released.
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