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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Mid-season dry spell dampens yield prospects of 2025 cereal crops
- Inflation rate remains elevated
- Drought and high food prices underpin acute food insecurity in 2025
Mid-season dry spell dampens yield prospects of 2025 cereal crops
The optimal planting period for the 2025 cereal crops ended in early January. Across most key cropping zones in central provinces, cumulative rainfall amounts between October and mid-December 2024 were close to average levels, supporting planting activities. However, in the same central provinces rainfall quantities declined in late December and early January, resulting in localized dryness. Weather forecasts for February 2025 indicate a likely continuation of below-average rainfall amounts and an increased probability of higher-than-average temperatures. These weather conditions could curb yields of the 2025 cereal crops, particularly for maize crops which has a relatively higher sensitivity to water deficits than millet and sorghum crops. Prices of key agricultural inputs, including fertilizers and fuel, are also expected to remain higher than average, driven in part by a weaker currency. These elevated prices may restrict access to adequate supplies of agricultural inputs, further worsening yield prospects.
Inflation rate remains elevated
According to the latest data by the Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE), the annual inflation rate was estimated at 27.5 percent in December 2024, about 8 percentage points higher than 12 months earlier. Key factors underpinning the elevated levels have been the removal of fuel subsidies and a depreciation of domestic currency against the US dollar in 2023 and 2024, both of which have driven up import costs. However, since late 2024, the currency has remained relatively stable, which has partly eased inflationary pressure.
The nominal retail prices of cassava and maize grain in Luanda (two of the main food staples) were reported to be respectively 24 and 17 percent higher year-on-year as of December 2024.
Drought and high food prices underpin acute food insecurity in 2025
Current projections from the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) indicate that up to 1.5 million people are expected to face severe acute food insecurity until at least March 2025 and are in need of assistance. Most food-insecure people are assessed to be in southern, eastern and parts of the central provinces, where severe drought conditions in 2024 caused shortages in local food production and curbed income-earning opportunities due to reduced labour demand and potential crop sales.
The prevalence of poverty in these areas is also high and it renders local population more vulnerable to extreme weather events, such as droughts, due to lack of adequate coping strategies. High inflation rates and increased food prices are additional factors contributing to food insecurity.
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .
FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .
FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .