Some Countries are having Difficulties
Filling Cereal Gap
The graph below shows that the region
is now facing one of the largest regional maize production gaps in recent
years (the difference between production and consumption requirements).
When stocks are added to last season's production, consumption requirements
can almost be met from within the region. However, the physical availability
of maize within the region is not enough to ensure that trade and marketing
systems will move the maize from surplus to deficit countries. Regional
trade over the past few months has been constrained by financing problems,
trade restrictions and transport bottlenecks. These constraints must
be addressed by SADC countries as a crucial prerequisite to achieve regional
food security.
Slow Progress on Regional Trade
According to private sector sources, maize trading activities within the sub-region are moving very slowly.
Recent reports indicate that Zimbabwe has completed arrangements to import 160,000MT of maize from South Africa. The first shipment of 32MT has reportedly arrived, with more on the way. According to available reports, transport arrangements have been finalized for only 10,000MT, raising concern over the timing of future shipments due to regional transport constraints. With national grain reserves nearly exhausted, Zimbabwe needs to import at least 25,000MT per week to meet the national requirements for maize.
Malawi has reportedly completed the importation of some 53,000MT of white maize from South Africa despite transport delays in both Mozambique (by rail) and in Zimbabwe (by rail/road). There are plans to import a total of 150,000MT of maize from South Africa. Malawi is also planning to import an additional 30,000MT from Tanzania.
Zambia's Agricultural Market Information Centre reports that the Food Reserve Agency is facilitating the importation of white maize, of which only 31,000MT had arrived as of 23 January. Some 110,000MT is scheduled to be imported before the end of the marketing season.
Given the above situation, it is estimated that South Africa may end up exporting only 310,000-335,000MT of white maize to Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi and, possibly, DRC combined. Despite this lower-than-expected effective demand from these countries, the South African maize supply and demand situation has triggered imports from South America, which are expected to arrive within the next few months. Maize prices in South Africa are increasing as a result.
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