Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET, April 25 – May 1, 2013

from Famine Early Warning System Network
Published on 24 Apr 2013

1) Poorly distributed and significantly below average seasonal rainfall has resulted in deteriorating ground conditions since January. This has negatively impacted crops and livestock throughout many parts of southern Angola and northern Namibia.

2) Little to no rainfall since the second dekad of March has been received across portions of eastern Angola, and western Zambia. Late season moisture deficits indicate an early departure of the southern Africa monsoon in the region and may affect crops planted late in the season.

3) Since the beginning of February, pronounced dry spells and poorly distributed seasonal rainfall have negatively affected parts of the Caprivi Strip region, Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and South Africa.

4) Poor March rainfall and deteriorating soil moisture across parts of Malawi, eastern Zambia, southern Tanzania and northern Mozambique is likely to adversely affect crops in the region.

5) After above-average precipitation was received in January, seasonal rainfall has ceased since mid-February leading to significant ground moisture deficits in northern Mozambique.

6) Several consecutive weeks of significantly enhanced precipitation has negatively impacted equatorial East Africa with numerous floods, displaced people, infrastructure damage and fatalities. The potential for locally torrential rainfall is expected to further saturate ground conditions and possibly lead to additional flooding during the upcoming outlook period.

7) Although a slight increase in precipitation has been experienced since mid-April, the delayed seasonal rainfall has resulted in moderate moisture deficits across many “Belg” producing areas and western parts of the country.

8) Significantly heavy rainfall during the last several weeks has led to flooding, river basin inundation, damaged crops, and the displacement of thousands of people throughout parts of Southern Somalia and eastern Kenya. Enhanced rainfall is expected further north into parts of the Oromia and Somali regions of Ethiopia during the next seven days.