Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET, April 18 – April 24, 2013

from Famine Early Warning System Network
Published on 17 Apr 2013

1) Since the beginning of the year, poorly distributed and significantly below average seasonal rainfall has led to deteriorating ground conditions, stressed vegetation and negatively impacted cropping activities and livestock throughout many parts of southwestern Africa. Many local areas in Angola and Namibia have experienced less than half of their normal rainfall accumulation since January.

2) Since the beginning of February, pronounced dry spells and poorly distributed seasonal rainfall have affected parts of the Caprivi Strip region, Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and South Africa. With no opportunity for recovery as the southern Africa monsoon is ending, this is expected to negatively impact cropping activities across the region.

3) After above-average precipitation was received in January, seasonal rainfall has ceased since mid-February leading to significant ground moisture deficits in northern Mozambique.

4) Since the beginning of March, enhanced rainfall in the Greater Horn has not been distributed over the northern and western portions of Ethiopia. As a result, early to mid-season moisture deficits are developing and are likely to negatively impact cropping activities throughout the “Belg” producing areas of the country.

5) Several consecutive weeks of significantly enhanced precipitation has led to localized floods, inundation along the Tana River, thousands of displaced people, and fatalities throughout many local areas of Kenya. Heavy rains have also led to floods, landslides, damage to infrastructure, and crop losses across parts of Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi. The potential for locally torrential rainfall across Kenya and northwestern Tanzania is expected to further saturate ground conditions and possibly lead to additional flooding during the upcoming outlook period.

6) Significantly heavy rainfall during the last two weeks has led to flooding, damaged crops, and the displacement of thousands of people along the Shabelle River. A slight reduction of rains is expected with average to locally above average rainfall forecast over eastern Ethiopia and southern Somalia during the next seven days.