Low cereal supplies and higher than normal prices in the south
The agricultural season is progressing normally and rainfall is consistent in most of the country, however cumulative rainfall to-date in the high production areas in the central and south-central region is slightly below average. Rainfall deficits have also increased in the southern region in recent weeks. Vegetation conditions appear to be good, but are expected to deteriorate if this rainfall pattern continues.
The movement of cereal supplies from western surplus areas of Huila to Lubango has been temporarily disrupted due to problems with train services. As a result available supplies during the lean season are much lower than usual in Huila Province. Additionally, a recent increase in fuel surcharges will increase prices further for food transported by vehicle. These higher than normal food prices could constrain access for poor households that are relying mostly on market purchases. Cattle prices in the southern part of the country have increased since last month. This rise could be due to relatively good pasture conditions in some areas of Namibe Province (Bibala and Camucuio) and most of Cunene Province. These higher selling prices will improve the relative purchasing power of pastoralists.
Due to lower than normal cereal supplies and higher than normal prices faced by poor households in the south, the current acute food insecurity outcomes among the majority of poor households is Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and these outcomes are expected to continue through March. However, once the harvest arrives in April, households in the Southern Livestock, Millet, and Sorghum livelihood zone are likely to face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes through June.