As the cereal harvest is coming to a close, about 50 percent of crops in the southwest of Angola failed to reach maturity due to persistent dry conditions throughout the season, causing significant crop losses. Households that were able to reseed mid-season (about half of all households in this area) will await their harvest in May/June but still expect below-average yields from late sowing, less area planted, and dry conditions.
Income for poor households is expected to be significantly below average in the southwest provinces of Namibe, Cunene, and parts of Huíla where severe rainfall deficits characterized the 2021/2022 agricultural season. Harvesting labor will be greatly reduced due to crop losses while limited pasture availability deteriorated livestock conditions. Income for pastoralist households will also be significantly below average given reduced livestock productivity and below average milk production.
Much of Angola’s national economic recovery is due to the continuous strengthening of the Kwanza (Kz) against the U.S. dollar (USD) since April 2021 (Kz649/USD), such that the currency has now exceeded its pre-pandemic value (Kz483/USD on March 16, 2020 compared to Kz414/USD on May 24, 2022). This trend of sustained appreciation, largely due to high oil prices, has effectively dampened the impact of simultaneous rising global food prices. Although annual inflation on the food and beverage sub-index has been the largest contributor to increasing costs in the CPI basket, it has been slowly declining since November 2021, with a recent drop from 32.9 percent in March 2022 to 30.9 percent in April 2022. During the projection period, currency values are expected to continue to strengthen, along with oil prices and production, while upcoming harvests, subsidies, and lower taxes on basic goods will further slow inflation.
Due to consecutive droughts over the past two agricultural seasons, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes are likely to persist until at least September 2022 for households in Namibe, Cunene, and southern Huíla where production prospects are very poor. Cuando Cubango expects Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes given its relatively better production prospects for the ongoing harvest from prior mid-season rain. Most households in other parts of the country with Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, which access food seasonal harvests either through own production and/or market purchases, will employ their typical livelihood strategies and will be able to meet their basic food needs.
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