Attachments
Executive Summary
Cities in the Western Balkans are no strangers to great upheavals. They have charted their course through wars, political transformations, and societal shifts, and their ability to endure has emerged as a defining characteristic. Now, as the threat of climate change casts its shadow over the region, the formidable resilience of these cities faces a renewed trial in the face of urgent challenges.
This report has three objectives. The first is to describe how cities and climate change are changing, and to identify relationships of interest between these two trends. The second is to analyze how a changing climate is affecting urbanization and how cities themselves contribute to climate change. The third is to prescribe ways for policy makers in national and local governments—working with the private sector and communities—to reshape urban development in ways that would promote greener, more resilient, more inclusive, and more competitive outcomes. Part 1 of the report describes where we are now, how a changing climate is linked to cities in the region, and what policy makers should do to respond. Part 2 provides a compendium of case studies of 5 cities in the region that provides nuanced data and analysis targeted at country- and city-level policy makers.
The majority of the 43 cities in the Western Balkans are small; only eight have a population over 200,000. Most population growth in the Western Balkans is occurring in larger cities. Conversely, smaller cities in the region have seen a decline in population over the same period. Thus, demographic shifts are reshaping the landscape. This trend has been further exacerbated by a decrease in the working-age population due to changes in demographics and increased emigration. These demographic trends of last decades are reshaping the region’s growth and territorial development prospects. Most cities in the region are characterized by low population density and isolated housing units, raising important questions about resource allocation, potential benefits of urban concentration, and the overall sustainability of their growth. Complicating matters further are the region’s complex spatial planning systems, inadequate waste management, and insufficient public infrastructure, which are magnifying the risks posed by natural disasters, particularly for vulnerable populations.
The Western Balkans, comprised of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia, is one of Europe’s most vulnerable regions to climate change. It is experiencing more frequent and severe storms, floods, landslides, wildfires, droughts, and heat waves, putting the lives and livelihoods of millions of people at risk. These extreme events are expected to become even more frequent and intense in the coming decades.
Urban areas in the Western Balkans, where more than half of the region’s population resides, are particularly affected by these challenges. In 2014, Sarajevo, the capital city of Bosnia and Herzegovina, suffered the worst flood in 150 years, affecting almost two-thirds of the country’s municipalities and causing damage estimated at 15 percent of the national income. More than 50 people lost their lives in the cities of neighboring Serbia. Urban development, itself, is also affecting climate, locally and globally, with respect to carbon emissions, particulate matter levels, and methane emissions.
So, what can be done? As climate, environmental, and socioeconomic changes reshape cities, ambitious and effective planning and governance approaches cannot rely anymore on ‘one-size-fits-all’ thinking. In the Western Balkans, the challenge of achieving sustained economic growth while addressing environmental and climate change issues is a multifaceted one. To tackle this complex task, a comprehensive approach is essential, one that spans various sectors and strategies. Private sector involvement and capital mobilization play critical roles in reshaping Western Balkans cities, advancing the goals of green, resilient, inclusive, and competitive urban development in the region.
GREEN actions to reshape cities for more sustainable urban development would include revising zoning and land-use regulations to limit urban sprawl. Encouraging mixed-use, high-density development; and promoting green growth will entail multi-scalar planning systems and integrating spatial planning to achieve resource-efficient urban functions. Shrinking cities present a special opportunity to embrace sustainable practices in response to urban decline and to enhance overall quality of life. Instead of pursuing unattainable growth plans, these cities can prioritize environmental protection, social equity, and sustainability. More compact cities use less energy than larger ones, have lower levels of pollution, and can even be associated with higher levels of growth. Urban planners have a new opportunity to shape a better physical environment in concert with the present economic and social needs of many shrinking cities.
The importance of RESILIENCE cannot be overstated for Western Balkan cities, as it is crucial for minimizing risks and adapting to various challenges. Cities must focus on managing critical infrastructure, providing essential services, regulating building design, and ensuring early warnings to shape their development. Nature-based solutions, such as green and blue strategies, can help mitigate climate risks and improve the well-being of vulnerable communities. Integrating water, waste, and risk management, as well as emergency preparedness and response initiatives, is essential for building resilience against multiple hazards. Furthermore, assessing climate risk, managing public assets, and enhancing local capacity are non-capital interventions that are vital for reducing vulnerability.
INCLUSIVE pathways are key to addressing inequality and promoting social equity in the Western Balkans. Initiatives involving community engagement, partnership building, and citizen empowerment can foster social cohesion and promote local participation in addressing climate change. Investing in public service delivery, social protection, and gender inclusion is crucial for building social resilience. Addressing gender imbalances in the labor market and supporting the integration of excluded groups into formal employment are essential actions. Furthermore, combining spatial approaches with social interventions can create multisector solutions to counter inequality and shape change.
Lastly, it is important to recognize the role of cities as drivers of COMPETITIVENESS in the Western Balkans. Government activity alone is not sufficient to reshape the urban economy: the private-sector—which create jobs, make investments, and seek new markets for their products—are the true drivers of every region’s economic activity. To boost growth, city administrations should work together with the private sector to support industries that can compete in regional and international markets, promote innovation, and develop investment proposals that are attractive to bank financing. It is also crucial to broaden the funding sources of cities, including the use of green bonds and carbon-pricing tools, to promote sustainable urban development.
The stakes are high. The decisions made today, in the face of a changing climate and evolving urban landscapes, shape not only the trajectory of cities in the Western Balkans but also the development of their national economies. Targeted policies and proactive measures can help the cities in the Western Balkans address these challenges and promote sustainable urban development in the region. The proposed four pathways encompass a broad spectrum of strategies, policies, and actions that, when combined, can help cities in the region to reshape their way to a more prosperous and environmentally responsible future.