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RISK ANALYSIS AND EARLY ACTION SELECTION
Prioritized hazard and its historical impact
The main risks / hazards as per the Albanian Government and its latest Risk Assessment Report from 2022 are triggered by floods, technological and biological events, forest fires, landslides and earthquakes. Several workshops with ministries and institutions confirmed that extreme heat is currently not an officially recognized direct threat.
However, latest research, publications, projections and recent summer temperatures alerted the global community - Southeastern Europe experienced ‘strong heat stress’, where the daily maximum feels-like temperature reached at least 32°C, for around two thirds of the summer period. Hence, summer 2024 was the warmest for Europe and for southeastern Europe on record (C3S Copernicus, Sep 2024).
All major stakeholders of the temporary Anticipatory Action Working Group (AAWG) including the Public Health Institute, the University of Medicine, the National Agency for Civil Protection (NACP), the Geoscience Institute (IGEO) and the Albanian Red Cross confirmed this trend and agreed to focus on extreme heat when it comes to anticipatory action as other identified hazards are not forecastable, have less negative impact or events triggered by intense precipitation are already quite well researched and acted on in Albania.
The Western Balkans are a hotspot in Europe in terms of climate and other natural hazards. On average, the Balkans are ranked as highly vulnerable in most of the critical dimensions of climate resilience. The differences in risk among the countries are due to a combination of climate factors, geographic features, population exposure, and socioeconomic factors as:
- the impacts of extreme heat on health and workers’ productivity are expected to be high in the region,
- the urban heat island effect is a phenomenon across Western Balkan cities,
- the lack of green areas in cities in middle-income countries overlaps with higher concentrations. Poorer neighborhoods tend to experience more elevated heat exposure.
Natural hazards in Albania such as intense storms, floods, heatwaves and wildfires are becoming more frequent, unpredictable and severe due to projected climate change trends. More frequent, longer lasting, and intense heatwaves will also adversely affect the concentration and dispersion of air pollutants.
Projections show:
- Climate Projections (2041-2070): The number of hot days is expected to continue increasing, particularly summer days with warm nights (minimum temperature ≥ 20°C). This trend is expected to affect the Adriatic region significantly, including Albania (IFRC Strategy 2030).
- Extreme heat is growing concerns also for Albania, especially as climate change projections show significant increases in hot days. These temperature shifts have serious implications for both the environment and public health. In addition to hotter days, night temperatures are also projected to rise, reducing the natural cooling period that traditionally helps mitigate daytime heat. This increase in night temperatures contributes to the growing health risks, particularly during tropical nights—nights where temperatures remain above 20°C (Climate Risk Country Profile for Albania by World Bank)
- Projections for the climate in 2050 include further increases in temperature and heat waves, decreases in total precipitation, increases in frequency and duration of extreme events like floods and droughts, and rising sea levels (The Fourth National Communication of Albania on Climate Change to the UNFCCC, Sept 2022).
In the past extreme heat has been neglected as it exacerbates chronic conditions and other diseases, mental health and was therefore hard to quantify – this has changed. For instance, in Romania +20% emergency calls have been received last summer by the state ambulance service during a heatwave event and research on heat related mortality numbers shows a clear picture and even a clearer on the fact that older people and women in general are affected most. In 2022, over 61,000 people and in 2023 over 47,000 deaths were caused by extreme heat in Europe.23 The WHO estimates an average of 175,000 deaths per year due to extreme heat in average in Europe and Central Asia and a 30% increase in heat related mortality over past 20 years in Europe.4 The World bank expects an increase of heat related death of +5-10% by 2100 and the WHO declared the climate crisis and related extreme weather events as a public health emergency in July 2023.
The risk/negative impact of extreme heat/heat waves on humans in the Albanian context has been confirmed by the Ministry of Health and Social Protection in Albania. Acknowledging that there is little data to confirm this in Albania as heat has not been officially pointed out as hazard as such yet, a case study has been conducted in 2017 and published in 2021 on excess deaths during periods of extreme heat. In the report6 a case study from Albania confirms that during two heat waves in 2017 an increase of deaths by 9-16% has been found and that more excess deaths can be expected in the future.
This issue has also been addressed in the National Adaptation Plan of the Ministry of Tourism and Environment, which includes as its main goals the promotion of adaptation strategies for the health sector for extreme heat events. (Albania National Adaptation Plan 2023).