Attachments
04 March 2026
This note examines the food-security and market impacts of the Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict and border closures, and how the Iran crisis amplifies these pressures through energy, trade, and corridor risks.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In mid-October 2025, heavy clashes between Afghan and Pakistani forces along the border prompted Pakistan to close all eight major official border crossings, including the key Torkham crossing in the east and the SpinBoldakChaman corridor linking Kandahar with Pakistan’s Balochistan. The closures halted trade and most cross-border movement, stranding thousands of people and trucks and disrupting long-established supply routes. While limited humanitarian movements were later permitted, primarily to allow Afghan refugees to return, commercial trade and transit have largely remained suspended.
Against this backdrop, the Afghanistan–Pakistan conflict and associated border closures constitute a major shock shaping food security, markets, livelihoods, and humanitarian operations in both countries. Afghanistan is particularly affected through market-mediated food-access pressures, reflecting its strong dependence on Pakistan corridors for key imports such as cooking oil, rice, fuel, and other consumer goods. Pakistan’s exposure is more concentrated in livelihood, fiscal, and employment losses in border districts and trade-dependent sectors.
Market data from areas near the border indicate that, following the closures, prices for key imported goods - especially cooking oil and rice - rose more sharply on the Afghanistan side. Fuel costs also increased, adding to transport and market expenses. This pattern is consistent with Afghanistan’s heavier reliance on the border remaining open and reliable for supply.
The Iran crisis, which escalated sharply in late February 2026, adds a compounding shock. Through higher energy prices, freight and insurance costs, pressure on wheat and input markets, and heightened displacement risks, developments linked to Iran amplify the impacts of the Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict by increasing costs and uncertainty across already-constrained trade and humanitarian corridors.