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Orzala Nemat, Vidya Diwakar, Ihsanullah Ghafoori, Shukria Azadmanesh
Afghanistan experienced an extraordinary situation in 2021 that presents a complex example of how an intensified level of conflict and the global COVID-19 pandemic of added to an increasing prevalence of drought due to climate change has been affecting people’s livelihoods from different angles. In pre-August 2021, the country experienced record-level violence across the provinces. This was followed by the gradual fall of districts, provinces and finally the capital Kabul into the hands of the current de facto authorities, the Taliban. Meanwhile, like any other part of the world, Afghanistan also experienced the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, which hindered people’s access to jobs, health care and different sources of revenue. Alongside this, the second-worst drought in 4 years (IFRC, 2021) has widely affected the livelihoods of the majority of people who rely on agriculture and livestock as the sole source of income. There has been limited research into how these situations have combined to affect livelihoods and wellbeing in Afghanistan. This article attempts to advance understanding of this issue and promote research that investigates overlapped crises.
INTRODUCTION
Afghanistan experienced an extraordinary situation in 2021 that presents a complex example of how an intensified level of conflict and the global COVID-19 pandemic of added to an increasing prevalence of drought due to climate change has been affecting people’s livelihoods from different angles. In pre-August 2021, the country experienced record-level violence across the provinces. This was followed by the gradual fall of districts, provinces and finally the capital Kabul into the hands of the current de facto authorities, the Taliban. Meanwhile, like any other part of the world, Afghanistan also experienced the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, which hindered people’s access to jobs, health care and different sources of revenue. Alongside this, the second-worst drought in 4 years (IFRC, 2021) has widely affected the livelihoods of the majority of people who rely on agriculture and livestock as the sole source of income.
There has been limited research into how these situations have combined to affect livelihoods and wellbeing in Afghanistan. This article attempts to advance understanding of this issue and promote research that investigates overlapped crises. It is based on research that focused on how COVID-19 has affected labour market and livelihood stability for young Afghans and how they have coped (differentially) and what types of collective action and sources of resilience they have employed during this period.
The article covers two key objectives. It first reflects on the research method and approaches employed, drawing on key lessons learnt from conducting research in time of overlapping crises, marked by a pandemic, in an intense conflict affected setting, and where there was increased economic uncertainty due to prolonged drought. Second, the paper assesses livelihood impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of conflict and climate change in Afghanistan using field qualitative data from two provinces (Kandahar and Herat) and supported by quantitative research based on the Income, Expenditure and Labour Force Survey (IE&LFS) 2019/20, part of which overlaps with the onset of COVID-19. These research findings in turn are used to develop implications for policies and programming to better support livelihoods of poor and vulnerable Afghan people in the context of overlapping crises.
The next section highlights the context of intense conflict, introducing what characterises the overlapping crises (conflict, COVID-19 and climate-induced shocks and stressors) on the ground. This is followed by an overview of the methodology adopted for our analysis in Section 3. The next sections detail the study findings: Section 4 then provides an analysis of the triple nexus, Section 5 focuses on the wellbeing of young adults in Afghanistan, and Section 6 examines the resulting coping strategies adopted by households during these layered crises. Section 7 finally concludes with policy implications and recommendations stemming from the research results.