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Pakistan: Impact of Iraq crisis

ISLAMABAD, 22 March (IRIN) - With a countrywide strike call on Friday in Pakistan by a coalition of right-wing political parties, experts and aid workers had a mixed reaction to possible repercussions of the Iraqi crisis in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
UN sources in Pakistan told IRIN that in terms of humanitarian assistance, the UN would continue with the repatriation of Afghan refugees, assistance to refugees staying back in the camps and support for drought-affected people in remote regions of the country. Earlier in the month, the office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) started its repatriation programme for this year with a planning figure of 600,000.

These sources added that development assistance to the country would most likely remain unaffected by the crisis in Iraq. As such assistance was based on bilateral agreements with the World Bank, the IMF and the Asian Development Bank, which are the three major donors to Pakistan in terms of development assistance.

Jack Redden, a spokesman for UNHCR, told IRIN in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, that it was hard to anticipate how the situation in Iraq would develop or how it would impact on UNHCR's operations in the region.

The agency stopped its repatriation programme from Pakistan on Thursday because the encashment centres in Afghanistan - where refugees pick up travel money - were closed for 48 hours. Following the start of hostilities in Iraq, the UN in Afghanistan on Thursday announced a 48-hour precautionary security alert and instructed staff to stay away from places of work for two days.

Redden added that during his recent tour of the region, UN High Commissioner for Refugees Rudd Lubbers had highlighted the concern that the world focus would shift to Iraq from Afghanistan. "We want to make sure that people keep an eye on the broader picture, and that is not just Iraq," he stressed.

With a strike under way across Pakistan on Friday called by Muttahida Majlis-e Amal, or the United Council for Action (UCA), an alliance of six right-wing religious political parties, experts predict more anti-American protests in the country.

Samina Ahmed, the project director of the advocacy organisation International Crisis Group in Islamabad, told IRIN that the ripple effect of the assault on Iraq would be felt in countries like Pakistan. "The political stability depends on whether the government contains the jihadis [Islamic militants]," she said.

Observers feel that many of Pakistan's militant organisations, which are closely allied with UCA, might retaliate against Western targets in the country during the ongoing military campaign in Iraq. International media reported on Thursday that security forces were on high alert across Pakistan to prevent such possible attacks.

Meanwhile, the US announced it would close its embassy and three consulates in Pakistan indefinitely from Friday because of security fears, the embassy said in a statement on Thursday. However, the missions - in Islamabad, the southern port city of Karachi, the eastern Punjabi metropolis of Lahore and the northwestern city of Peshawar - would continue to provide emergency services for Americans.

Experts believe that if the war in Iraq continues for a long time it might have considerable implications for Pakistan's economy as hundreds of thousands of Pakistanis working in the oil-rich Gulf states contribute enormously to their country's foreign currency reserves.

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