Attachments
Key Messages
- Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are anticipated to persist in the central highlands and western and northeastern provinces of Afghanistan through at least January 2025. Poor households have not recovered typical production levels following the impacts of the three-year drought. Household purchasing power remains constrained, driving food consumption gaps indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Poor urban households facing high unemployment rates and macroeconomic challenges are likely employing Crisis-level coping strategies to mitigate widening household food consumption gaps. In eastern, northern, and southern areas of the country, ongoing harvests, consistent food imports, and the appreciation of the Afghani (AFN) against key trading currencies have sustained downward pressure on food prices and improved household food access, resulting in broad Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in these areas.
- In Yemen, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes are expected to persist through January 2025 across internationally-recognized government (IRG) areas. In the Sana’a Based Authority (SBA)-controlled governorates, ongoing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist through the projection period due to the pause in humanitarian food assistance since December 2023, compounded by the effects of severe flooding in March, April, and July that impacted about 100,000 hectares of cropland, destroyed livestock, and displaced households. Although the main sorghum, millet, and maize harvest is ongoing in highland areas of the country, the majority of households remain market dependent following years of protracted conflict and overall macroeconomic contraction, which have devastated the agricultural sector and displaced households. However, some limited seasonal improvements in household food and income access are expected in lowland areas, the eastern plateau, and coastal areas from the start of the main harvest in mid-November. Food insecurity in Yemen remains concerning, driven by multiple concurrent shocks that FEWS NET is monitoring, including impacts of the bombing of Red Sea ports and the current cholera outbreak.
- Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expanding across Lebanon and are expected to persist through at least January 2025 as conflict intensifies between the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and Hezbollah, displacing households and disrupting livelihoods. According to OCHA, approximately 211,000 people have been displaced since the beginning of the conflict, the majority from southern Lebanon. Due to escalations in the conflict in September, the IOM estimates a 64 percent increase in internally displaced people (IDPs) over the four-day period from September 26 to 30. The ongoing conflict has resulted in widespread food supply disruptions amid rising prices of food and non-food commodities from the prolonged economic crisis. For example, the price of bread, a key staple, rose by 12.7 percent during the month of September. Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing in in El Nabatieh, Baalbak-El Hermel, Akkar, and North Lebanon governorates, driven by a combination of protracted factors, including poor agricultural production, limited labor opportunities due to competition among Syrian refugees, IDPs, and Lebanese host populations, constrained access to humanitarian assistance amid funding cuts, the ongoing economic crisis, and above-average food and non-food commodity prices. FEWS NET estimates that the population in need of urgent humanitarian food assistance is about 2.0 to 2.5 million people, representing 35 to 40 percent of the country’s population, nearly double the pre-conflict estimates.
- While Gaza is not a regularly monitored FEWS NET country and therefore not typically included in regional summaries, FEWS NET’s targeted analyses on Gaza can be accessed here. To prevent widespread loss of life, an immediate cessation of hostilities is required, alongside a large-scale, multisectoral response with unrestricted access to populations in need.
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Middle East and Asia Key Message Update September 2024: Impacts of widening Middle East conflict driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, 2024.