Early Warning Update - Report 28, 9 Feb 2012

Date and Participants:

From the 9 February meeting of the Early Warning Information Working Group attended by iMMAP, WFP, FEWSNET, FAO and FSAC.

Precipitation

  • Compared to historical average, January 24, 2012 snow cover extent indicates an increase in snow coverage, particularly in west and southeastern Afghanistan

  • The amount of snowfall in Feb has been perceived significant that could be compared with 18-20 year ago.

Temperature

  • Compared to long term average, Jan 2012 temperatures have been below average

  • Long term temperatures probability forecast for the month of March, April and May indicates above-normal temperatures which could trigger flooding, if excessive snowfalls are followed by high temperatures

Hydrological basins and Flood Hazard

  • In the ten days of the period 01/02/2012 to 10/02/2012 the water level monitored in the hydrological basins showed a significant increase mainly due to snow precipitations, so currently mostly of the basins are at or above the average

  • Due to the current temperature levels no immediate flood risk has been forecasted but the situation need to be constantly monitored.

Market Situation

  • It was expected that prices of wheat will get increased due to the drought situation and poor 2011’s harvest in the country, but the good supply of wheat flour from the neighboring countries (Pakistan and Kazakhstan) it is still normal.

  • The reason for decrease of wheat grain on the global level is due to last year’s good harvest in the key wheat producer countries.