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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Ground-level evidence on returns and remittances
Deportations are rising at the same time that humanitarian resources are tightening. Communities that relied on migration and remittances to bridge chronic poverty are now facing abrupt income loss, escalating debt and layered shocks (including climate related disruption), with many households moving quickly from precarious self-reliance into acute need. This study provides ground-level evidence of how forced returns are reshaping household economies, community support systems, and where the pressure points translate to protection risks.
Remittances function as a safety net for many households in Afghanistan, sustaining basic consumption in a context of low domestic incomes, declining aid, and constrained formal financial channels. Remittances account for around four percent of GDP, with actual numbers likely higher due to informal transfer systems unaccounted for in available statistics. Since late 2023, accelerating returns and deportations from neighbouring countries, particularly Iran, have abruptly stopped this safety net. The large-scale return of migrant workers and families has removed earners from foreign labour markets and cut off transfers that were covering essential needs. The shock is concentrated in border and transit provinces such as Herat, Nimroz, and Farah, where pressures on food, shelter, and jobs rise sharply while household purchasing power contracts. Within this context, the report examines the socio-economic impacts of deportations from Iran on remittance dependent households. The study aims to inform World Vision Afghanistan’s programming and advocacy for affected families and communities.
Methodology and scope
The study, led by researchers at Samuel Hall, applies a mixed methods approach, combining quantitative survey data with qualitative interviews to understand the effects of remittance loss on individuals, families, and communities. Fieldwork was conducted in the fall of 2025 across urban, peri urban, and rural settings in Herat, Faryab, and Kabul provinces to capture varied household profiles and local market and service conditions. Herat was selected as a major return hub from Iran, Faryab as a predominantly rural migration setting, and Kabul as the capital city, a remittance dependent and return context. Qualitative research included focus group discussions, semi structured interviews, and key informant interviews with community leaders, money transfer actors, and relevant organisations. The quantitative survey targeted households that had received remittances from a relative in Iran within the past 24 months, but whose transfers stopped in the past 12 months due to return of the sender. Altogether, over 465 participants contributed to this study through interviews across the three provinces, with a gender balanced sample.