Winter and spring crop development is on track for an average harvest in the region
Even though the wet season’s accumulated precipitation to date in Central Asia is below the long-term average and last year’s precipitation totals for same period, the 2014 harvests are expected to be average. Consistent precipitation during March and April was critical for successful rainfed crop planting and development.
Food security outcomes from April to June 2014 in Afghanistan are expected to be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through most parts of the country, given the staple food stocks carried over from last year’s above-normal harvest, particularly in northern areas. Income sources are adequate as livestock prices are above the five-year average and the resumption of seasonal agricultural labor opportunities will reach its peak during the harvest, from May to September.
In the West-Central Highlands Livelihood zone in Afghanistan, acute food security outcomes will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) from April to June, as poor households will be relying on external food assistance in the absence of normal seasonal sources of income, given last year’s livestock distress sales in order to cope with harvest losses.
From April to September 2014, Tajikistan will likely experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes. Ample reserves from last year’s harvest, a normal potato harvest this year, and above-normal remittances are all contributing to favorable food security conditions throughout the country.
Newly displaced IDPs (within the last 6 months) in Afghanistan continue to have difficulty meeting their basic survival needs as they are unable to rely on their usual sources of food and incomes, thus their food security outcomes are likely to be Crisis (IPC Phase 3) for entire scenario period if they do not receive external assistance. Those who receive assistance are likely to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2!).