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CONTEXT
On 3 October 2023, the Government of Pakistan announced its decree “Illegal Foreigners’ Repatriation Plan’ setting a 1 November deadline for the ‘voluntary return’ of all undocumented Afghans in Pakistan to their country of origin. Following this date, deportations are expected to commence. The implications of this announcement are considerable. Historically in 2023/2022 the daily influx of undocumented Afghans returning to Afghanistan via the Spin Boldak (Kandahar) and Torkham (Nangarhar) border crossing points stood at an average of less than 260 individuals. A significant increase has been observed since 15 September 2023, with current returns increasing to 4,500 individuals per day. Those returning include undocumented individuals, Afghanistan Citizen Card (ACC) holders and Assisted VolRep (Proof of Registration (PoR) card holders).
While the majority of these returns are predominantly voluntary, instances of deportations have been observed since mid-September.
Following clarification from the Government of Pakistan that only undocumented Afghans, and not PoR card holders or ACC holders, will be affected by the decree, it is estimated that between 1.1 and 1.3 million undocumented Afghans presently residing in Pakistan will be targeted. Considering the situation of mixed-status households, an estimated 50,000 Assisted VolRep (PoR)may also return due to the shifting political context in Pakistan, in addition to an undetermined number of ACC holders. To respond to this observed increase in returns, organizations working at the aforementioned border locations have scaled-up their operational capacity. They have adopted a joint and harmonized approach to the provision of assistance, ensuring optimal use of resources to assist the high volume of persons in need and in line with contingency plan scenarios.
Additionally, while the primary focus remains on the situation in Pakistan, it is critical to note that any increase in returns from Iran will further strain resources in Afghanistan.
A surge in deportations from Iran would trigger a reassessment of funding requirements to ensure that all cases of deportation and forced return, irrespective of their point of origin, receive support and assistance.