Asia and the Pacific: El Niño Humanitarian Snapshot - Latest updates for Southeast Asia, South Asia, and the Pacific (As of 30 November 2023)

OVERVIEW

El Niño conditions continue to persist. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), climate model projections suggest a potential further increase in temperatures in the central to eastern Pacific; El Niño is likely to persist until 2024.

INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE

The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event also remains in force, registering at strong levels. Typically, IOD events weaken as the monsoon shifts through south into the southern hemisphere, typically occurring around the end of the southern hemisphere spring (November). Given the current intensity of the positive IOD event, this weakening is anticipated to be slightly delayed this year.

South Asia

While anticipated above-average rainfall is forecasted for Afghanistan, rendering them vulnerable to potential flooding in the upcoming spring, particularly if snowpack levels are substantial, local observation data tells a different story. As of November 24, 2023, FEWSNet has reported below-average snow depths were noted in the northeastern, eastern, and central basins. Presently, all basins in the country exhibit low levels of snow water volumes. Typically, snow water volumes in the Panj, Kokcha ab-i-Rustaq, Khanabad, and Kabul basins have commenced an upward trajectory from early November; however, they are currently at early-season record lows.

Pakistan and Nepal also showcase the same above-average rainfall conditions, but like Afghanistan, close monitoring of national and provincial data is key. In contrast, certain regions of Bangladesh are displaying early signs of below-average conditions, and starting from February onward, similar indications of this situation emerge in Sri Lanka.

The Pacific region

Classic El Niño indicators continue to manifest as expected, and stronger readings of above and below average rainfall are being recorded. The South Pacific is anticipated to receive below-average rainfall, particularly concerning South of Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and Fiji, exhibiting solid signals that coincide with their rainy seasons. Given their reliance on subsistence agriculture, closely monitoring the situation in both countries is strongly recommended. Palau is a cause for concern in the North Pacific due to its significant below-average rainfall readings, primarily impacting water availability in the country. Conversely, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia are expected to encounter above-average rainfall. While these conditions may lead to the possibility of flooding, they also offer a potential reprieve, especially for regions like Kiribati and Tuvalu, which have been grappling with prolonged drought in recent years. It is now cyclone season for the South Pacific until April 2024. The season evidences normal to above normal where 9 to 14 named tropical cyclones could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin.

Southeast Asia

In the upcoming three months, Southeast Asia is anticipated to encounter predominantly typical seasonal conditions, except for the Philippines exhibiting notable signals of below-average rainfall. However, when considering the four-month outlook—currently viewed with low probability but warranting ongoing scrutiny—other ASEAN countries, such as Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar, and sections of Lao PDR, Viet Nam, and Myanmar, appear to align with this pattern. Timor-Leste is persistently marked by below-average signals, potentially influencing the ongoing rainy season.

In addition, the ongoing rainy season in Indonesia is providing some respite to the recent dry conditions felt across parts of the country however, close monitoring of how it performs and it impacts the ongoing main rice growing season