Attachments
Highlights
Trade Outlook and Market Context: During the second week of March, prices for most food and non-food commodities have shown a slight decline from the previous week, yet they remain elevated. While trade with Pakistan remains closed, there is a growing risk of further supply disruptions as Iran has suspended exports of food and agricultural products until further notice, citing internal economic pressures and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Although imports via the Khaf–Herat railway corridor remain active and imports from central Asian countries remains stable, the decline in imports through western borders from Iran is expected to put additional upward pressure on food prices in the coming weeks.
Exchange Rate and Food Basket: During the second week of March, the Afghani appreciated slightly against the US dollar, strengthening by about 3.6% week-on-week to AFN 63.6 per USD and remaining stronger than the same period last year by 11%. The appreciation contributed to a modest easing in prices of imported food commodities during the week. The FSAC cash food basket shows a 6.2% increase compared to the last revision of the transfer value, reflecting higher prices for several key staples including wheat flour, rice, and cooking oil.
Food Items: National average prices for several food commodities declined slightly week-on-week, reflecting the stronger Afghani and partial stabilization of imports. Wheat grain, wheat flour, pulses and cooking oil prices recorded declines compared to last week. However, prices of these food commodities remain significantly higher than last year and above seasonal norms. Rice prices continued to increase week-on-week, reflecting limited availability of higher-quality Pakistani rice following the continued closure of the borders with Pakistan.
Vegetable prices showed significant increases. Tomato prices surged by 42.3% week-on-week, while potato prices increased by 12.0%, largely reflecting reduced imports from Iran and supply disruptions linked to regional tensions. However, the arrival of domestic tomato harvests in the coming weeks is expected to partially improve market availability and ease prices. In contrast, onion prices remained relatively stable and substantially lower than last year, reflecting adequate domestic supply.
Labour Market and NFIs: Unskilled and skilled labour wages remained broadly stable during the week. However, employment opportunities remain limited, with labour availability averaging about 1.6 days per week, which is significantly lower than last year and the three-year average. This continues to constrain income-earning opportunities for vulnerable and labour-dependent households. Among non-food commodities, diesel prices increased by 5.1% week-on-week, reflecting transport and supply uncertainties linked to regional trade conditions. Fertilizer prices also increased moderately, with DAP rising by 1.0% and Urea by 5.3% compared to last week and both stands higher by 14% compared to last year, though they remain below their three-year average levels. Prices of improved seeds, animal feed remained relatively stable.