Attachments
Key Messages
• Deficit cumulative precipitation conditions (October 1, 2024, to April 25, 2025) were seen across the country. The combination of deficit precipitation and below-average soil moisture conditions may lower wheat yield prospects.
• As of April 26, 2025, widespread below-average snow water equivalent (SWE) conditions were observed across the country.
• Snow water volume (SWV) levels in the northeastern basins were closer to record minimums while those in Kabul and Kunduz basins were at 50 percent of normal as of the reporting date. SWVs have reached the end of their seasonal cycles in the remaining basins at least 4-6 weeks earlier than usual.
• The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predicts a high likelihood of ENSO-neutral conditions to continue until October 2025. Seasonal cumulative precipitation is expected to be average to below-average while widespread above-average temperature conditions are expected during May – July 2025.
• CHIRPS-GEFS short-term forecasts predict increased likelihood of below-average cumulative precipitation (October 1, 2024 – May 10, 2025) across the country. ECMWF weekly forecasts indicate a high likelihood of below-average cumulative precipitation conditions in the northern, western, and southern areas while there is no tilt towards above- or below-average cumulative precipitation elsewhere till May 12, 2025.
• Field reports indicate that wheat harvest is in progress in the eastern, southern, and southeastern regions. Reports indicate that the harvested wheat has benefited from the dry weather since the beginning of this month and near-average wheat yields are expected in these areas. On the other hand, rainfed wheat in the rest of the country will be adversely affected by the deficit precipitation and below-average soil moisture during this period and that lower-than-average wheat yields may be expected during May and June this year.
• Localized floods are possible in the northeastern, eastern, southeastern, and southern, particularly in low- and mid-elevation areas, due to potential intense rainfall events in the coming months.
• Forecasts of above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation may adversely affect the rainfed wheat harvest prospects. Further, below-normal water availability due to earlier-than-normal completion of snowmelt seasonal cycles in most basins may adversely affect the later stages of second crop cultivation in places where there is no access to groundwater.