Afghanistan Seasonal Monitor: June 24, 2022


Poor production outcome during current year will worsen food security situation in 2022-23


  • Cumulative precipitation for the 2021-22 wet season (October 1, 2021 – May 31, 2022) was 55 to 85 percent of normal in the southwestern, northern, central highlands and northeastern parts of the country. Average and above-average cumulative precipitation conditions were observed during the same period in parts of Helmand, Kandahar, and Kabul basins (Figure 1), as well as low water levels in many reservoirs in the country (Kajaki Reservoir, Figure 2).

  • Snow water volumes have been far below average in the northern, northeastern, and eastern basins throughout the 2021-22 wet season. Aboveaverage temperatures led to rapid melt of the meager snowpack, which led to bare ground in some basins at least three weeks earlier than average (Figure 3).

  • The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicts widespread above-average precipitation during the week ending June 27 which is likely to help in land preparation for planting second season crops. Dry weather is expected in the following week ending July 4 (Figure 4).

  • Forecast of above-average temperatures (Figure 5) through the end of the second season, along with low water availability, will limit the second crop cultivation.

  • Forecasts of below-average precipitation in late 2022 and early 2023 associated with the anticipated third successive La Niña, along with above-average temperatures and low reservoir levels, is likely to create adverse conditions for the upcoming 2022-23 agricultural season.

  • Wheat production outlook for 2021-22 is most likely poor in terms of both magnitude and area in more provinces when compared to 2020-21 (Figure 6). Below-average precipitation through the end of December 2021 led to reduced winter wheat planted area; below-average precipitation during April when wheat was in flowering stage led to below-normal yields, and both combined result in a poor outlook of wheat production during the current year.