Attachments
Seasonal impacts of below-average precipitation thus far in the winter wet season are concerning if deficits aren’t reduced in February and March
Key Messages
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Persistent below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures from October 1, 2023, to January 15, 2024, have been seen throughout the country. These conditions will continue until at least the end of January (Figure 1). Wet season precipitation performance in the range of 45-60 percent of average is spread over the northeastern, eastern, and southern parts of the country. Slightly better precipitation performance in the range of 60-90 percent of average along with isolated patches of average cumulative precipitation is seen in the rest of the country as of the reporting date.
Snow water volumes are either at, or very close to, record minimum levels across the country as of the reporting date (Figures 2 and 3). -
ECMWF weekly precipitation forecasts indicate average to above-average precipitation in most parts of the country in early-to-mid February 2024. The forecasted average precipitation conditions may increase the current snow water volumes from record lows. However, snow water volume deficits may not be completely erased as above average temperatures may cause early snow melt in the country. In response, it is expected that the farmers may opt for planting spring wheat from late February through end of April taking advantage of the forecasted average precipitation (Figure 4 and 5).
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Above-average mean temperatures are highly likely between February and April 2024 (Figure 6). Furthermore, air temperatures in the hottest 20 percent of the historical record are forecasted to be 2-3 times more likely than average during late spring and summer months in the country. Above-average temperatures may not only adversely affect healthy germination of irrigated spring wheat, but also lead to moisture stresses in rainfed crops and rangelands during this period. Early blooming of stone fruits, mainly almonds, due to early aboveaverage temperatures in the northern, northeastern, and central parts of the country may be badly affected by late spring frosts and freezing temperatures culminating in reduced yields at the end of the season.
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There is an increased likelihood of earlier-than-normal flash floods due to the forecast above-average temperatures melting fresh snow occurring during late February and March. These events may distract the farmers in their regular agricultural activities during early spring especially in the eastern and southern parts of the country.