Average to above-average cumulative precipitation (October 1, 2025, through February 25, 2026) conditions are seen in the central, northern, and northeastern parts of the country. Below-average cumulative precipitation conditions are seen in the rest of the country during same period.
Below-average snow water equivalent (SWE) persists at higher elevations across the northern, southeastern, central, and central highlands regions. In contrast, isolated mid-elevation areas within the central highlands, central, northern, western, and southern regions are currently experiencing average to above-average SWE conditions.
Snow Water Volume (SWV) levels are below average throughout the country except for above average in Khash Khuspas basin in the southwest. SWVs are currently at near record lows in Panj, Kokcha_Ab-i-Rustaq, Khanabad, Kunduz, Khulm, Balkhab, Sari Pul, Shamal, and Kabul basins. SWV levels in all basins have declined sharply after mid-February except in northeastern basins wherein they have been at record minimums since the start of the season.
The ongoing weak La Niña is forecast to end during the northern hemisphere spring of 2026, transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions. A developing El Niño is then forecast to follow ENSO-neutral in the summer of 2026, with the probability of these conditions exceeding 60% by the August-October 2026 period.
The CHIRPS-GEFS short-term forecast for cumulative precipitation (October 1, 2025 – March 10, 2026) predicts below-average precipitation (45–75% of average) conditions in the southwest, south, central, and central highlands. However, north and northwest parts are likely to experience average to mildly below average cumulative precipitation by the end of the forecast period.
ECMWF weekly forecasts till March 9, 2026, indicate increased likelihood of above-average precipitation in northwestern, northern, and central parts while there is an increased likelihood of below-average precipitation in the rest. In the following week ending March 16, 2026, there is an increased likelihood of below-average precipitation in central, southern, and southwestern parts of the country while there is no tilt towards above- or below-average precipitation in the rest during the same period.
The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts increased likelihood of below-average precipitation across most parts of the country for March-May 2026. Although there is an increased likelihood for below-average precipitation forecast for areas bordering central Asian countries, there is no tilt towards above- or below-average precipitation forecast in the rest during April-June 2026. NMME forecasts increased likelihood of above-average temperatures for March-June 2026.
As per field informants, there is an increased risk of localized flooding, inundation of agricultural areas, damages to roads and bridges, irrigation infrastructure, population displacement in urban areas, and a potential disruption of market access within the affected areas in case of heavy localized precipitation events in the coming months.
As per field informants, precipitation in the first week of February has created favorable growth conditions in the irrigated and rainfed wheat regions in the country. Farmers have begun land preparation activities taking advantage of favorable dry weather conditions and pliant soil conditions. Early sowing of spring wheat is expected, which will most likely compensate for the shortfalls in winter wheat planted areas in some parts of the country.
