Attachments
Key Messages
- Below-average cumulative precipitation during the rainy season (October 1, 2025, through March 25, 2026) conditions are seen in most parts of the country. Average to above-average cumulative precipitation conditions exist in some isolated places in the western, northern, and southern parts as of the reporting date.
- Below-average snow water equivalent (SWE) conditions persist except for above average SWE conditions seen in isolated locations in the Bala Murghab_Kushk and Balkhab basins.
- Snow Water Volume (SWV) levels are below average in all basins. SWV reached zero levels in Arghandab, Ghazni, Shamal, and Shirin Tagab basins six to eight weeks earlier-than-normal. SWV’s continue to be at record minimum levels in Panj, Kokcha_Ab-i-Rustaq, and Khanabad basins in the northeast.
- ENSO-neutral conditions are favored through till the end of wheat harvest during May – July 2026. El Niño is likely to begin June-August (60% chance) and persist through 2026, which may influence the start of the 2026/27 wet season.
- The CHIRPS-GEFS short-term forecast for cumulative precipitation (October 1, 2025 – April 10, 2026) predicts below-average precipitation (45–75% of average) conditions in the southwest, south, central, northeast, and central highlands. However, the rest of the country is likely to experience average to above-average cumulative precipitation by the end of the forecast period.
- ECMWF weekly forecasts through April 13, 2026, indicate increased likelihood of above-average precipitation in all parts of the country.
- The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecast indicates no tilt towards above- or below-average precipitation across most parts of the country for April - June 2026. Anticipated stable spring rains allow for normal spring wheat planting and help prevent moisture stress in both wheat and pastures. NMME also forecasts increased likelihood of above-average temperatures during the above period.
- As per field information, dry spells during early March led to moisture stress in rainfed wheat in the northeast and cold spots adversely affected wheat in the northwest. Nationwide precipitation in the last ten days of the month, though less intense than expected, was reported to have improved wheat and pasture conditions across the country.
- Spring wheat planting is expected to be well supported by the widespread above-average precipitation forecast in the coming weeks. Harvest of early-sown wheat is expected to begin late-April and early May as per schedule.
- According to field informants, extraction of groundwater has been reported to support water needs of cash crops.