Afghanistan Seasonal Monitor: Average irrigated wheat production and below average rainfed wheat production are expected at the end of the 2024-25 agricultural season (May 28, 2025)

Key Messages
• Seasonal cumulative precipitation for most of the 2024-25 season (October 1, 2024, to May 25, 2025) has been below average across the country.
• Although above average snowpack conditions were briefly present in some medium to low elevations during January, snowpack has been persistently below average during most of the 2024-25 season.
• Snow water volume (SWV) levels in all basins were below average during the 2024-25 season. SWV levels in the northern and northeastern basins have been closer to record minimums throughout the 2024-25 season. SWVs had reached the end of their seasonal cycles in the northern, western, and southern basins last month at least 4-6 weeks earlier than usual.
• The ENSO Diagnostic discussion indicates a high likelihood of ENSO-neutral conditions to continue until October 2025. Seasonal cumulative precipitation is expected to be largely average to below-average while country-wide above-average temperature conditions are expected during June – August 2025.
• CHIRPS-GEFS short-term forecasts predict increased likelihood of below-average cumulative precipitation (October 1, 2024 – May 31, 2025) across the country. ECMWF weekly forecasts indicate a high likelihood of average to below-average cumulative precipitation conditions till June 9, 2025.
• Field reports indicate that the harvest of irrigated wheat is complete in the eastern, southeastern, and southern areas while it is in progress elsewhere (except in some central Highlands and higher elevations in the northeastern parts of the country where it harvested in August-September). There are reports of severe moisture stress in rainfed wheat crops and rangelands in the northern, northeastern and western parts of the country. It is also indicated that while near average irrigated wheat production is expected, however, reduced whet production from rainfed wheat areas at the end of 2024-25 season.
• Although flood risk is less in the coming months, flash floods may be possible in some selected flood prone locations in the northeastern, eastern, and southeastern parts of the country.
• Forecasts of above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation may adversely affect the rainfed wheat and rangelands in the coming months. Second crop cultivation may be adversely affected by below-normal water availability in the downstream areas with farmers relying excessively on groundwater for the fifth year in a row.