Below-average precipitation conditions are expected across most parts of the country till December 5, 2024, except for near-average precipitation conditions in Badakhshan in the northeast (Figure 1).
A mix of above- and below-average snow depth conditions is seen over the higher elevations in the eastern, northeastern, and central water sheds as of November 25, 2024. Below-average snow depths are visible over lower elevations in some in the northern, central, and southern watersheds as of the reporting date. Positive snowpack development is observed in Panj basin while it is below-average in Kabul basin as of the reporting date (Figure 2).
Borderline La Niña conditions are forecast during December 2024 - February 2025. These will most likely be followed by ENSO-neutral conditions through the end of July-September 2025. Cumulative precipitation will most likely be below-average for 2024/25 winter wet season (Figures 3) and the same is expected to continue till the end of the 2025 spring season. Consequently, below-average snowpack development, snow depths, and snow water volumes (SWV) may be seen throughout the 2024/25 precipitation season.
ECMWF weekly forecasts indicate no tilt of above- or below-average precipitation in most parts of the country till December 16, 2024, except for higher likelihood of below-average precipitation in the western, southwestern, and southern parts of the country till December 9, 2024. There is a likelihood of above-average precipitation in the northeast during December 2-9, 2024 (Figure 4, left and right insets). The likelihood of average precipitation during the forecast period ending December 16, 2024, may help winter wheat planting activity except in the southwest.
As per field reports, the progress of 2024/25 winter wheat planting has been somewhat better than that during 2023/24 as of the reporting date. Field reports also indicate that the winter wheat planting window may be extended through the end of December 2024 taking advantage of the average precipitation and above-average temperatures during this period.
Above-average temperatures are forecast throughout the country from December 2024 – February 2025 (Figure 5). Forecasts of below-average precipitation coupled with higher-than-normal temperatures through spring 2025 (March to May) may lead to below-average vegetative conditions in the rainfed cropped areas and pastoral areas during this same period. Above-average temperatures during April-May 2025 may cause moisture stress in rainfed crops and rangelands and reduce water availability for crop water use in these areas. It is important to note that despite the forecasts of above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation, there is a wide range of possible outcomes by the end of the season depending on the regional storms during 2024/25 spring and summer months.
