Days before landmark elections for the Lower House of Parliament and Provincial Councils, scheduled for Sunday 18 September, a new report reveals that after almost four years of steady reconstruction, Afghanistan's ability to function without significant international involvement has only just begun.
The report, In the Balance: Measuring Progress in Afghanistan, confirms that warlords continue to play a destabilizing role in post-Taliban Afghanistan and that only the early foundations of political, economic, and social infrastructure have been established. Commissioned by IOM, the report was produced by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Lead author, Morgan Courtney, says that in order to consolidate the gains made by Afghans and the international community over the past four years, there needs to be improved local security, a widening of political space, and more efforts to develop a judicial system that is both understood and respected by the Afghan people. The report states that a culture of impunity persists, and while great strides have been made toward improving Afghans' social and economic well being, quality and access remain major issues of concern.
On countrywide security, the report confirms that the international military presence has been integral to providing increased safety. Crime, however, remains a serious concern and local strongmen still wield significant influence.
On governance, the authors argue that while President Karzai remains a positive symbol of national unity and hope, a weak Afghan government and the influence of local strongmen and corruption continue to obstruct democracy and human rights.
In the area of economic improvement, the report states that growth has been significant but uneven. Local commanders still maintain illicit sources of revenue while most Afghans, including ex-combatants, lack job opportunities.
Nevertheless, in-country interviews conducted by CSIS show that Afghans are upbeat. With an end to heavy fighting and an increasingly inclusive government in place of the Taliban regime, Afghans speak fondly of electing their President, and of watching their children go to school for three uninterrupted years.
The report cautions that while the emergency phase in Afghanistan has passed, the country is not yet ready to move on to a more traditional "development" relationship with donor governments. The needs remain too great and state capacity too weak. The goal in Afghanistan should be to provide ten years of relative peace so that Afghans have a chance to build their skills, make a living, connect to each other and the world, and establish an open government under the rule of law.
Right now, international aid accounts for 90% of Afghanistan's total budget, with the United States leading the way at approximately US$15 billion per year. If this money tapers off prematurely, it is likely to have a devastating effect on Afghanistan's future. International engagement must not diminish as a result of fatigue-it should be a result of increasing Afghan capacity.
In conclusion the report outlines five core principles that should guide the reconstruction effort:
1) International forces must guarantee Afghan security for the next decade;
2)International financial assistance must move more quickly into the hands of ordinary Afghans;
3)The Afghan government and international donors must look beyond Kabul for reliable partners in local government and civil society;
4) International assistance must free Afghans from the burden of time consuming survival strategies by providing economic efficiencies that will improve productivity; and
5) Afghan leaders must convince fellow Afghans that working together as citizens of a shared community is the only viable path to safety and prosperity.
The report also makes crosscutting recommendations to guide the next stage of Afghanistan's reconstruction. According to Morgan Courtney, "Unless international efforts make headway both in meeting short-term needs and in building long-term governmental and human capacity, any progress we have made in Afghanistan thus far is tenuous."
For more information, or for a pre-release copy of the full report, contact Morgan Courtney at CSIS, Email: mcourtney@csis.org Tel: 1.202.775.7318. The summary report is available on the IOM Website at www.iom.int