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SITUATION ANALYSIS
Description of the crisis
Afghanistan continues to face prolonged and complex humanitarian crises. In 2024, an estimated 23.7 million people, over half the country's population, are projected to need urgent humanitarian assistance. Key drivers of these humanitarian needs include recurrent disasters, the escalating impact of climate change, population movement, economic challenges, food insecurity, and significant gaps in healthcare. Compounding these challenges is the limited local capacity and resources for disaster preparedness and response.
Impact of climate change and disasters: Afghanistan ranks among the most vulnerable countries globally to climate change and disaster risks, standing fourth in terms of crisis risk and 24th and sixth for vulnerability and preparedness on the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index for climate change, respectively. The country is also prone to earthquakes, with nearly 400 tremors recorded in the last three years, including significant quakes, such as the 6.3 magnitude in Herat Province in October 2023.
The construction styles in rural areas of Herat province significantly contribute to the vulnerability of local populations. Traditional building methods, particularly domed-type construction, dominate rural practices across the province. Typically, homes feature domed roofs made of sun-dried mud bricks, supported by walls constructed from the same material or stones. In some areas of Herat province, homes have flat timber roofs resting on mud brick walls. However, in the recently damaged villages of Herat, most of the affected homes were built with domed roofs of sun-dried mud bricks and walls made of the same bricks or stone blocks bonded with dried mud.
These building styles are well-suited to the region's climatic conditions, as they are designed to resist termite infestation and utilize inexpensive, locally sourced materials. Nevertheless, they are highly vulnerable to collapse during seismic activity. The heavy walls and roofs often lead to significant fatalities when such collapses occur.
In March 2024, a late winter in Afghanistan brought heavy snowfall and extreme cold, impacting several provinces, particularly at high-altitude areas. The snows blocked roads, and disrupted economic activities, affecting over 325,000 people. Thousands of animals died, severely impacting livelihoods. The IFRC allocated CHF 500,000 to support the Afghan Red Crescent Society (ARCS) in delivering multi-purpose cash assistance (MPCA) and/or dignity kits to 22,400 people across 11 provinces: Badakhshan, Badghis, Balkh, Faryab, Ghor, Kunduz, Nangarhar, Nuristan, Sarie-Pol, Uruzgan, and Zabul. Further details are available in the Afghanistan Cold Wave Operation (MDRAF014) Update 1.
The situation was further aggravated between April and July 2024, when heavy rains triggered devastating flash floods across 33 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces. The floods directly impacted over 295,000 people, placing an additional 1 million at risk, and resulted in at least 350 fatalities. The disaster was widespread, with 14,230 homes destroyed and 27,500 more partially damaged. Additionally, critical infrastructure and agricultural lands have been devastated, with approximately 185,200 hectares of farmland impacted. Thousands of livestock also perished, exacerbating the economic strain on affected communities. The IFRC launched Emergency Appeal (MDRAF015) to support ARCS in carrying out humanitarian assistance to the population affected by floods. Progress on this operation is outlined in Afghanistan Floods Operation (MDRAF015) Update 1.
Given that more than 80 per cent of Afghans rely on agriculture for their livelihoods, the loss of crops and fruit trees has heightened the need for an integrated recovery programme, especially for women- and child-headed households. Women and children, who are disproportionately affected, are particularly vulnerable and require comprehensive support, focusing on health and livelihoods in the flood-affected areas.
The compounding effects of these disasters have exacerbated the already fragile situation in Afghanistan. These successive disasters have pushed more Afghans into poverty and heightened their vulnerability. ARCS has had to prioritize their emergency response efforts to address the immediate needs of the affected communities. This has stretched the capacity of the ARCS and diverted resources and attention away from the longer-term programmes. Addressing the complex and interconnected challenges of shelter, food security, livelihoods, health, and WASH has become an overwhelming task for the humanitarian organizations operating in the country.
Economic crises, livelihood and food insecurity: Afghanistan’s economic crisis is widespread, with more than half of households experiencing an economic shock. The country’s economy is heavily dependent on foreign aid and remittances, which have declined significantly since the political change in 2021. This has resulted in high levels of unemployment, challenging people’s coping mechanisms and thwarting the already fragile economy’s ability to adapt to shocks. Unemployment doubled between 2020–2023, with unemployment in the 14–24 age group being the highest (31% for men and 57% for women).
More than 85 per cent of the country’s population is now living below the poverty line, AFN2,268 (equivalent to CHF 24 per person per month as of September 2022). As the agricultural sector has traditionally been a primary source of livelihood, the impacts of successive droughts have exacerbated the ongoing crisis. The onset of the 2023/24 rainy season in Afghanistan brought below-average precipitation during the critical wheat planting period, resulting in reduced planting rates, particularly in northern rainfed wheat regions. Additionally, limited access to seeds and fertilizers has intensified these challenges. However, favorable spring rains have helped to improve water levels in reservoirs and the condition of winter wheat. Nonetheless, the lingering effects of the La Niña drought from 2021 to 2023 continued to suppress household purchasing power, keeping the situation at a crisis level, Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) 3 or above.
Gaps in health and care: Owing to limited funding for public healthcare, there are significant gaps in access to healthcare, especially in rural areas. Related costs, like those for transport, present additional barriers to accessing healthcare due to increasing poverty. Among key health threats are acute disease outbreaks, including multiple outbreaks of measles, acute watery diarrhoea, dengue fever, pertussis, Crimean Congo Haemorrhagic Fever (CCHF), and malaria. The threat of vaccine-preventable diseases to child morbidity and mortality remains. Further, congenital heart defects (CHD) are a widespread health concern across Afghanistan.
Limitation of women participation: Compounding the humanitarian situation are constraints relating to the participation of women and minority groups. In December 2022, the authorities announced measures limiting the participation of women in education and workplace. Because of restrictions in their ability to participate in formal workforce, women are becoming more dependent on humanitarian support. This has created a cycle of escalating needs, which in turn has further limited women’s economic capacities. Pragmatic approaches which ensure the inclusion of women need to be pursued.