Kabul 1 February 2009
MINISTER OF COUNTER NARCOTICS: It is my immense pleasure to have Mr. Kai Eide at this very important event with us today. His presence shows the high commitment and good intentions of the international community to a coordinated fight against drugs in Afghanistan. Thank you very much for your continued support and good leadership. I am confident that the people of Afghanistan will remember your efforts in years to come.
It was only a short time ago when I and Mr. Costa, the Executive Director of UNODC, announced that Afghanistan had succeeded in reducing poppy cultivation by almost 20 per cent in 2008.
Today I have more good news for you. I am pleased to announce that during 2009 a further decrease in opium poppy cultivation is expected. This applies to the southern provinces as well. For the first time in the past five years, we should see a decrease in the south.
Today we officially launch the UNODC-MCN [MCN: Afghanistan Ministry of Counter- Narcotics] joint Opium Rapid Assessment Survey. The survey indicates that 18 provinces which were poppy free in 2008 are likely to be poppy free in 2009.
A very strong decrease is expected in Baghlan and Herat provinces. We will launch an eradication campaign on time so that we can salvage these provinces from the menace of opium.
Further improved coordination, timely eradication and a pre-planting campaign will hep to bring provinces such as Badghis, Faryab, Kabul, Kapisa, Kunar, Badakhshan and Laghman into the poppy free category as well.
Seven provinces in the south and south west (Day Kundi, Farah, Helmand, Kandahar, Nimroz, Uruzgan and Zabul) which cultivated 98 per cent of the opium in 2008 also show a decrease in opium cultivation in 2009.
It is worth mentioning that the scale of success that we had in 2008, and predicted more of in 2009, has been achieved due to the non-stop pre-planting campaign by MCN and others.
The MCN is thankful to have had the support of the communities, religious scholars, provincial governors and district chiefs, MoI [Ministry of Interior], IDLG [Independent Directorate of Local Governance] and the international community.
We organized various Shura meetings and community gatherings to try and prevent communities from poppy cultivation.
We intend to continue the pre-planting and eradication campaign all over Afghanistan to ensure communities do not turn to poppy cultivation again.
The Good Performance Initiative that rewards poppy free provinces also played an important role by injecting more than US$ 50 million in assistance to the successful provinces.
I thank the international community in particular the U.S. and the U.K. for supporting this initiative. I believe this initiative is the window towards a poppy-free Afghanistan.
I am calling on the rest of the international community members and our friends to contribute to the Good Performance Initiative. By increasing and sustaining rewards to the communities through this process, we can ensure the consolidation of our achievements to date.
I also think the role of UNODC is very important and commendable. I am happy that recently my good friend Mr. Jean-Luc has been appointed as the head of UNODC in Kabul. I wish him success in his new assignment.
Now, I give the floor to Mr. Kai Eide to talk further on the findings of the joint MCN and UNODC Rapid Assessment Report and will be happy to take any questions at the end.
UN SRSG: It is always more fun to have a press conference at which I can deliver good news. This year could be a turning point. Poppy production has increased every year since 2002. There was a small reduction last year. Now, a major reduction is within reach. There could be a reduction in each and every province in the country. And the number of poppy-free provinces could grow beyond 20. It means that poppyproduction is no longer an Afghanistan-wide phenomenon, but is more and more limited to a smaller number of provinces in the South. And even here we can see a significant reduction. It may be a major blow to those who are behind the opium industry.
And since this industry is so intimately linked to crime, corruption, and food insecurity, the effects could be wide-ranging, and very positive.
I emphasize that it could be, because a prognosis is a prediction only - not yet a reality. We can see that the reasons for the decrease in production vary from region to region. While drought and market prices play a major role in the South, other reasons are more dominant in other parts of the country. There, we can see that stronger efforts by governors, more effective delivery of services, and agricultural assistance are important when farmers make their decisions.
Therefore, this prognosis must be seen also as opening a window of opportunity to deal the poppy industry a very significant blow. But that window of opportunity must be used effectively by the government and by donors. If we do not make full use of this opportunity we could face a backlash instead of further progress. We must consolidate progress and provide what is required to stimulate further development in the same direction.
Let me mention three elements:
Governors need additional resources to enable them to demonstrate that reduction in poppy production leads to development today. They have huge responsibilities, but few resources. The U.S. and the U.K. have contributed significantly to the Good Performance Initiative. I would encourage other donors to also support this effort.
Agricultural assistance directly to farmers should be increased. The survey shows that where such assistance was given, the communities tend to stop poppy production. As you are aware, agriculture has been a neglected sector. Both the Government and donors must make sure that agriculture becomes a priority not only in rhetoric but in the allocation of resources. I look forward to the new Minister of Agriculture presenting his plans, both for the short and long term.
Community leaders and religious leaders must be mobilised in the fight against poppy production. Again, the survey shows that where they are engaged, there are positive results. But there is still a great unused potential here and the Government should expand its efforts in this respect.
So the forecast now presented to us could - if we draw the right conclusion - give us a unique opportunity to achieve success in one of the most important challenges we face in Afghanistan.
UNODC: Thank you very much. Your Excellencies, I want to thank the Special Representative of UNAMA for his support to host this event here today within this compound and I would like to also thank his Excellency, Mr. Khodaidad for the joint exercise which we have been undertaking and the results which we will provide you with today.
It is my role to give you a bit more of a mundane introduction to technical issues and it will be my pleasure to do that now.
You do have the report available, if not you can ask for it, there is a detailed report which will give you guidance on the results. In a nutshell, with regard to the methodology, this assessment was held between 10 December 2008 and 20 January 2009, and included 84 local field surveyors, they visited about 484 villages in 265 districts; across all provinces and by this we have a sample rate of 1.6 per cent of the total.
The results, you have heard them, and they are very positive. But let's make clear that this is a prognosis and the forecast is indeed that poppy free provinces already poppy free will remain poppy free without a doubt.
For four provinces which were not poppy free last year, we would expect that they are to become poppy free but it will depend on, for example in Ghor, Samangan, Sar- I-Pul, on the spring cultivation which is only expected from March 2009. We have to wait to see what is happening regarding the pre-cultivation campaigns with the governors and the Ministry of Counter Narcotics.
A strong decline is expected in the provinces of Baghlan and Herat with a potential to have them eventually opium free, depending on the eradication exercise and again with the support of the governors and the Ministry of Counter Narcotics.
There's a sharp decline in seven other provinces including Badakhshan, Fayrab, Kabul, Kapisa, Laghman, Kunar. And who knows if we can have some more opiumfree provinces among them. We definitely hope that the central part of this country will become opium free but again this is a forecast and indications need to be translated into reality.
Interesting as well is the chapter on the reasons for not cultivating opium in 2009. In the northern part of the country, in thinking about the reasons why people have not cultivated opium, 52 per cent would say that this is due to pressure from Government authorities. And by this I would like to congratulate the Minister of Counter Narcotics, the governors, the Ministry of Interior and all the related government departments. More than half of the respondents in the north would say that they do not grow opium because of the involvement of the Government and governors.
As Kai Eide has already mentioned it is not enough to have pressure, and you need to be able to consolidate the gains you have made and you need to have more rural development within those provinces to consolidate the promises made.
The situation in the southern provinces the reasons why people don't cultivate opium are very different. This doesn't mean that we doubt the leadership or the governance and I would like to mention the Governor of Helmand, for example. We need effective and strong leadership. It is only due to the insurgency that the access is far more difficult.
We do expect a lot from the Helmand Counter Narcotics plan which is being implemented and especially the food zones which have not been as effective that we cannot see the results within this assessment. But hopefully later on will be able to see the fruits of that project.
So in the southern provinces, the main reason why people did not cultivate opium is 22 per cent of people said because of the high price of wheat, 21 per cent because it was against Islam and 15 per cent because the opium price has gone down. The market situation has played far more in the south than in the north.
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
SABAH TV [translated from Dari]: Based on your report could you tell us how much, in percentage terms, poppy cultivation will decline in the country?
MINISTER OF COUNTER NARCOTICS [translated from Dari]: The report we presented to you contains estimates. The way we are going ahead, we estimate that more than 22 provinces of Afghanistan will be poppy-free.
ASSOCIATED PRESS: Do you think that targeting drug-traffickers by International Military Forces would help in reducing poppy cultivation?
MINISTER OF COUNTER NARCOTICS [translated from Dari]: Thank you very much for your interesting question. You know that drugs fuel terrorism and it is beneficial to the enemies of Afghanistan and those who are disrupting security in the country. Actually this was the Afghan Government's proposal to the international community, especially to NATO and coalition forces, to target drug-traffickers. It was a 12-point action plan suggesting NATO take part in the interdiction of drugs, destroying the labs, and hitting the convoys of drug-traffickers because drug dealers and traffickers, terrorism and Al Qaeda are the enemies of the people of Afghanistan.
UNODC: We need to make a distinction between what we call the activities of the opium farmers, which falls within the definitions of civil action and those on the other end of the scale where we see military convoys of drugs shipped across the border and very often engaging in very violent interceptions. And those who believe in the movie "The French Connection", where you can jump with a gun in front of a drug transportation convoy and say "freeze" and everybody puts up their hands, will be very surprised about the reaction which happens. We need to be very real as some of these convoys have military organizations behind them. Traditional law enforcement will not help so we need to talk reality business here.
FARDA TV [translated from Dari]: A question addressed to the UN's Kai Eide: You mentioned about the utilisation of the opportunities in order not to go back to poppy cultivation. What do you mean and what are the fears that we will face a backlash if we don't utilize these opportunities?
UN SRSG: When you have a prognosis it means that it must be turned into reality. It demands things from the donors and certain things from the Government. And what I have seen too often in my life, is that there are prospects of good news that are not followed up and that's what we have to avoid. And that's why I use this opportunity to say to all those who are involved that there is a chance here but you must make use of it. If you don't, you may face a backlash and we can't afford that. So it is a caution in the middle of the optimism. To all those who are engaged I say make use of the opportunity, don't miss the boat. If we do [miss the boat] then we may see next year or the year after that we are moving backwards instead of forwards.
BBC PASHTO [translated from Pashto]: To the general regarding his remarks on the prognosis for 2009: What are the reasons that there will be a decline and do you have enough in your budget to carry on the ministry's work on this issue?
MINISTER OF COUNTER NARCOTICS [translated from Pashto]: Regarding the reasons why there will be a decrease in poppy cultivation. The first is that those areas which are under Government control, there we can pressure the people or give them messages not to stay with poppy cultivation. The second reason is that now our people know that poppy or opium will finance our enemies and they will buy weapons and destabilise our country. The third reason is high food prices in the market and the fourth reason is the low price of opium itself. As to the budget and assistance, the U.K and U.S governments were generously assisting us in this and as Mr. Kai Eide said we urge others in the international community to assist us in this effort too.
BBC PERSIAN TV [translated from Dari]: The main part of Afghanistan's poppy is cultivated in the southern parts of the country. As has been said already, 98-100 per cent of it. 50 per cent of the reason for lower production is because of the low prices and to some extent because of the drought. Now who should the credit go to? To your Ministry or to the grace of God or markets? On the other hand more than 190 drug traffickers have been tried in the past nine months and among this number there have been no major drug traffickers but they are people who have been caught in laboratories. Why have you not been able to arrest key drug traffickers?
MINISTER OF COUNTER NARCOTICS: First of all I do not agree with the question. The provinces in the south of the country have an open border with Iran and Pakistan. The reform process is going on in the police and the provinces were having lots of problems during thirty years of war. Afghanistan has been the top producer of opium for seven years, almost 98 per cent. Now we are trying to bring this amount down year by year; it is all due to the hard work of Afghans, Ulemas and the attention of the international community.
Because the border is open, the enemy is freely operating. Crossing into Afghanistan takes place from the other side of the borders, drug traffickers are active in the border regions, the enemies of peace and reconciliation are active and terrorism is there. It needs a lot of time. However it is premature to say, but we will do our best to decrease the amount of poppy cultivation 30-40 per cent in Helmand despite the insecurity in that province.
GOOD MORNING AFGHANISTAN RADIO [translated from Dari]: My question may not be related to today's press conference. It is about the postponement of the elections and this has been supported by UNAMA. People call this postponement unconstitutional. And the second question is for General Khodaidad; the problems that exist with the institutions of Afghanistan, that is the lack of coordination and the Ministry of Counter Narcotics cannot be excluded from that. As Mr. Eide mentioned of the three elements, you have not been able in particular to use local leaders and religious leaders, and that is because you don't have a coordination mechanism in place for that.
GENERAL KHODAIDAD [translated from Dari]: I regret to say that some of the journalists are not aware of the picture about the fight against narcotics. We have quite enough coordination and consultation with communities at the different provincial levels. We convened two workshops for governors at two different categories two months ago. We had the representation of all 34 provinces and talked about the role of each ministry including the President's Office and we have quite a good level of coordination with donor countries and UNAMA and UNODC.
We work closely with each other. If we didn't have this coordination I assure you that we would have not had this achievement in 15 years. We work with closely with local leaders, parliamentarians, the international community, key line government ministries, our brothers and sisters, teachers and mullahs. We are quite good at this. We will keep up this good work with all other relevant sectors. If some of you attend some of our meetings you may find out more in-depth about what we do.
UN SRSG: With regards to the topic of today's press conference, yes there are many elements here, as were pointed out, the weather, the market the stronger governor efforts, and agricultural assistance to farmers etc.
Whatever the reasons are, they do open that window of opportunity and we have to design the response with regards to how we utilise that opportunity in a wise and adequate way and that is going to be the challenge. You asked why the religious and community leaders have not been used: Of course they have been used, but they can be used further. They can be used more. The time has come to mobilise everything that we can in order to push this progress further. It is time for stubbornness and not for complacency.
On the elections, I have said all the time, when the Independent Election Commission (IEC) makes its decision we will support that decision, it has been my constant theme long before the IEC made its decision. It remains my position after the IEC made its decision.
And I say that with only one thought in my head and that is the importance of respecting the Afghan institutions that have been established and the roles that they are supposed to play.
I had two concerns with regard to the timing of elections, three perhaps I should say. One is that we have the required financial resources of about US$ 223 million. The second is that we are able to carry out all the practical preparations and each and every step in the conduct of the elections and that is a very complex process. And the third is that we can do our utmost to have the required security in place and in consultation with ISAF and others who are responsible we believe that all these three elements can be taken care of within the timeframe available for the date that the IEC has set.
What are my comments to the debate that I now see going on in the in Afghan media and Afghan political circles? My only comment is that this is a debate that the Afghan media and Afghan political circles will carry out without my interference.
My role is clear and I stick to that role. The role you have, the role the Afghan politicians have, are your roles and their role. I am certainly not going to mix anything from my point of view.