Attachments
A. SITUATION ANALYSIS
Description of the crisis
Since the beginning of 2025 until the end of November 2025, Afghanistan has witnessed the return of over 5.2 million Afghans (deportees and returnees) from neighbouring Iran and Pakistan 2 —an unprecedented movement that has further strained a country already grappling with a severe humanitarian crisis. More than 3.6 million have returned from Iran alone, of which 1.2 million were deported3. The bulk of returns began after 1 April, highlighting the intensity of recent developments in both host countries. Partners reported that, despite the onset of winter usually limiting population movement, returnee numbers remain relatively high. This is particularly evident in pushback cases from Iran, suggesting that protection concerns and policy-related pressures are currently outweighing seasonal constraints on mobility.
Returnees from Pakistan
Based on the IOM dashboard, between 1 January and 30 November 2025, an estimated 804,830 Afghans returned from Pakistan, of whom 116,100 (14%) were deported In Pakistan, the second phase of the ‘Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan (IFRP) began in April 2025, targeting undocumented Afghans and holders of Afghan Citizen Cards (ACC). On 31 July, the Government expanded the plan to include Proof of Registration (PoR) card holders. The end of the grace period on 31 August has heightened uncertainty and fears among Afghans, as returns and deportations continue despite the protection risks.
According to Afghan Red Crescent Society (ARCS) data, the highest daily influx was recorded in November 2025. Most returnees cross through the official crossing points of Torkham (Nangarhar) and Spin Boldak (Kandahar), with smaller flows observed at Angur Ada (Paktika) and via unofficial routes in Helmand.
In Pakistan, the second phase of the ‘Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan (IFRP) began in April 2025, targeting undocumented Afghans and holders of Afghan Citizen Cards (ACC). On 31 July, the Government expanded the plan to include Proof of Registration (PoR) card holders. The end of the grace period on 31 August has heightened uncertainty and fears among Afghans, as returns and deportations continue despite the protection risks.
According to Afghan Red Crescent Society (ARCS) data, the highest daily influx was recorded in November 2025. Most returnees cross through the official crossing points of Torkham (Nangarhar) and Spin Boldak (Kandahar), with smaller flows observed at Angur Ada (Paktika) and via unofficial routes in Helmand.
Returnees from Iran
Returns of Afghan nationals from Iran in 2025 have been substantial and sustained, reflecting shifts in policy enforcement and broader regional dynamics. According to operational data, over 1.8 million Afghans returned to Afghanistan from Iran in 2025, accounting for nearly 65% of all returnees recorded in the year. These movements encompassed both voluntary and forced returns, with significant numbers arriving at key border points including Islam Qala and Milak–Zaranj.
The peak of return flows occurred mid-year, driven in part by the expiry of temporary residency arrangements and intensified enforcement actions in Iran. Prior reporting indicates tens of thousands of Afghans were crossing daily during earlier phases of the crisis. Returnees frequently arrived with limited belongings and resources, placing immediate pressure on reception systems and basic services along border provinces.
Although the daily rate of crossings from Iran declined after the mid-year peak, returns continued at scale through late 2025. The large volume of returnees has compounded existing humanitarian needs in Afghanistan, as communities receiving returnees struggle with economic hardship, limited access to shelter, food, health care, and protection support. 6 Vulnerable groups, including women, children, unaccompanied minors, and those with specific protection needs, remain at heightened risk due to gaps in service coverage and constraints on movement and employment.
Returnees from Tajikistan
In Tajikistan, borders remain open only to those with valid passports and visas. At the same time, the Government continues to carry out arbitrary deportations, including of recognized refugees and asylum-seekers, generating deep anxiety and distress within the community. Recent announcements and media reports have heightened concerns about the safety and rights of those affected.